652-50 Deer Permit Draw Odds, Montana

Deer permit, district 652-50 (mule), from FWP's 2023 to 2026 drawing statistics. Jump to resident odds or nonresident odds.

Fact	Value
Drawing	Deer permit, district 652-50 (mule)
2026 total quota	100
2026 nonresident cap (FWP's NR quota column)	10
2026 landowner preference cap: resident / nonresident	15 / 10
2026 first-choice applicants: resident / nonresident	884 / 179
2026 drawn on first choice: resident / nonresident	90 / 6
2026 first-choice odds: resident / nonresident	10.2% / 3.4%
2026 total successful (all choices and pools)	100

Resident odds by bonus point (2026 drawing)

Share of first-choice resident applicants at each bonus-point level who drew, from FWP's 2026 bonus point report. Each applicant gets one chance plus their points squared, so the draw favors high point holders without a hard cutoff. How Montana bonus points work.

Bonus points	Chances in drawing	1st-choice applicants	Drawn	Odds at this level
0	1	95	0	0.0%
1	2	149	6	4.0%
2	5	119	7	5.9%
3	10	115	3	2.6%
4	17	116	14	12.1%
5	26	89	15	16.9%
6	37	81	15	18.5%
7	50	49	4	8.2%
8	65	24	9	37.5%
9	82	20	8	40.0%
10	101	13	4	30.8%
11	122	9	3	33.3%
12	145	2	0	0.0%
13	170	1	0	0.0%
15	226	1	1	100.0%
21	442	1	1	100.0%

Resident outlook for 2027

If first-choice demand keeps its 2023 to 2026 trend (-129 applicants a year), about 755 residents would apply in 2027; with the same number of first-choice licenses, overall first-choice odds would be about 12%. Average bonus points among first-choice applicants are trending to about 3.7 (+0.11 a year), a measure of point creep in a weighted draw. Confidence: medium.

Landowner preference (residents, 2026): 4 first-choice applicants, 4 drawn.

Nonresident odds by bonus point (2026 drawing)

Share of first-choice nonresident applicants at each bonus-point level who drew, from FWP's 2026 bonus point report. Each applicant gets one chance plus their points squared, so the draw favors high point holders without a hard cutoff. How Montana bonus points work.

Bonus points	Chances in drawing	1st-choice applicants	Drawn	Odds at this level
0	1	37	0	0.0%
1	2	33	0	0.0%
2	5	36	1	2.8%
3	10	14	1	7.1%
4	17	15	0	0.0%
5	26	9	0	0.0%
6	37	6	0	0.0%
7	50	9	2	22.2%
8	65	6	1	16.7%
9	82	4	0	0.0%
10	101	3	1	33.3%
11	122	3	0	0.0%
12	145	2	0	0.0%
14	197	2	0	0.0%

Nonresident outlook for 2027

If first-choice demand keeps its 2023 to 2026 trend (-40 applicants a year), about 139 nonresidents would apply in 2027; with the same number of first-choice licenses, overall first-choice odds would be about 4%. Average bonus points among first-choice applicants are trending to about 3.0 (-0.11 a year), a measure of point creep in a weighted draw. Confidence: low.

First-choice odds by year

First-choice draws over first-choice applicants in the regular drawing (landowner preference excluded).

Draw year	Quota	Res applicants	Res odds	NR applicants	NR odds
2023	125	1,270	8.7%	300	3.7%
2024	125	1,166	9.5%	266	4.5%
2025	100	991	9.0%	263	3.8%
2026	100	884	10.2%	179	3.4%

Outlook method: see the top of the Montana points explainer and our forecast method. It is a trend line, not a promise.

Notes from TagCanyon

In 2026, 884 residents listed this drawing first for a quota of 100, about 8.8 resident applicants per license.
Residents: at 0 bonus points 0% drew; at 11 points (the highest level with at least 5 applicants) 33% drew.
Nonresidents: at 0 bonus points 0% drew; at 8 points (the highest level with at least 5 applicants) 17% drew.

Deadline

Deer and elk permits: FWP's 2026 window ran Mar 1 to Apr 1, 2026 (11:45 p.m. Mountain), with results in mid-April. FWP has not posted 2027 dates yet; the April 1 deadline has held in recent years. FWP application and drawing dates.

Source: Montana Fish, Wildlife & Parks (FWP), 2026 Drawing Statistics reports (MyFWP drawing statistics, FWP application and drawing dates). Tables, outlooks and text are TagCanyon's own; FWP does not warrant or endorse them. Not affiliated with FWP. Retrieved Oct 17, 2026.