515-00 Deer B License Draw Odds, Montana

Deer b license, district 515-00 (mule), from FWP's 2023 to 2026 drawing statistics. Jump to resident odds or nonresident odds.

Fact	Value
Drawing	Deer b license, district 515-00 (mule)
2026 total quota	100
2026 nonresident cap (FWP's NR quota column)	10
2026 landowner preference cap: resident / nonresident	15 / 10
2026 first-choice applicants: resident / nonresident	362 / 22
2026 drawn on first choice: resident / nonresident	88 / 4
2026 first-choice odds: resident / nonresident	24.3% / 18.2%
2026 total successful (all choices and pools)	100

Resident odds by bonus point (2026 drawing)

Share of first-choice resident applicants at each bonus-point level who drew, from FWP's 2026 bonus point report. Each applicant gets one chance plus their points squared, so the draw favors high point holders without a hard cutoff. How Montana bonus points work.

Bonus points	Chances in drawing	1st-choice applicants	Drawn	Odds at this level
0	1	156	17	10.9%
1	2	119	28	23.5%
2	5	66	28	42.4%
3	10	18	12	66.7%
4	17	3	3	100.0%

Resident outlook for 2027

If first-choice demand keeps its 2023 to 2026 trend (+16 applicants a year), about 378 residents would apply in 2027; with the same number of first-choice licenses, overall first-choice odds would be about 23%. Average bonus points among first-choice applicants are trending to about 0.9 (+0.07 a year), a measure of point creep in a weighted draw. Confidence: medium.

Landowner preference (residents, 2026): 8 first-choice applicants, 8 drawn.

Nonresident odds by bonus point (2026 drawing)

Share of first-choice nonresident applicants at each bonus-point level who drew, from FWP's 2026 bonus point report. Each applicant gets one chance plus their points squared, so the draw favors high point holders without a hard cutoff. How Montana bonus points work.

Bonus points	Chances in drawing	1st-choice applicants	Drawn	Odds at this level
0	1	5	0	0.0%
1	2	9	1	11.1%
2	5	7	2	28.6%
4	17	1	1	100.0%

Nonresident outlook for 2027

If first-choice demand keeps its 2023 to 2026 trend (-8 applicants a year), about 14 nonresidents would apply in 2027; with the same number of first-choice licenses, overall first-choice odds would be about 29%. Average bonus points among first-choice applicants are trending to about 1.4 (+0.15 a year), a measure of point creep in a weighted draw. Confidence: low.

First-choice odds by year

First-choice draws over first-choice applicants in the regular drawing (landowner preference excluded).

Draw year	Quota	Res applicants	Res odds	NR applicants	NR odds
2023	100	315	27.0%	46	21.7%
2024	100	312	27.6%	41	24.4%
2025	100	297	27.3%	40	25.0%
2026	100	362	24.3%	22	18.2%

Outlook method: see the top of the Montana points explainer and our forecast method. It is a trend line, not a promise.

Notes from TagCanyon

In 2026, 362 residents listed this drawing first for a quota of 100, about 3.6 resident applicants per license.
Residents: at 0 bonus points 11% drew; at 3 points (the highest level with at least 5 applicants) 67% drew.
Nonresidents: at 0 bonus points 0% drew; at 2 points (the highest level with at least 5 applicants) 29% drew.

Deadline

Elk B, deer B, antelope and antelope B licenses: FWP's 2026 window ran Mar 1 to Jun 1, 2026 (11:45 p.m. Mountain). FWP has not posted 2027 dates yet; the June 1 deadline has held in recent years. FWP application and drawing dates.

Source: Montana Fish, Wildlife & Parks (FWP), 2026 Drawing Statistics reports (MyFWP drawing statistics, FWP application and drawing dates). Tables, outlooks and text are TagCanyon's own; FWP does not warrant or endorse them. Not affiliated with FWP. Retrieved Oct 17, 2026.