471-00 Deer B License Draw Odds, Montana

Deer b license, district 471-00 (mule), from FWP's 2023 to 2026 drawing statistics. Jump to resident odds or nonresident odds.

Fact	Value
Drawing	Deer b license, district 471-00 (mule)
2026 total quota	50
2026 nonresident cap (FWP's NR quota column)	5
2026 landowner preference cap: resident / nonresident	8 / 5
2026 first-choice applicants: resident / nonresident	57 / 8
2026 drawn on first choice: resident / nonresident	43 / 5
2026 first-choice odds: resident / nonresident	75.4% / 62.5%
2026 total successful (all choices and pools)	50

Resident odds by bonus point (2026 drawing)

Share of first-choice resident applicants at each bonus-point level who drew, from FWP's 2026 bonus point report. Each applicant gets one chance plus their points squared, so the draw favors high point holders without a hard cutoff. How Montana bonus points work.

Bonus points	Chances in drawing	1st-choice applicants	Drawn	Odds at this level
0	1	25	17	68.0%
1	2	28	22	78.6%
2	5	4	4	100.0%

Resident outlook for 2027

If first-choice demand keeps its 2023 to 2026 trend (-10 applicants a year), about 47 residents would apply in 2027; with the same number of first-choice licenses, overall first-choice odds would be about 91%. Average bonus points among first-choice applicants are trending to about 0.6 (-0.02 a year), a measure of point creep in a weighted draw. Confidence: medium.

Landowner preference (residents, 2026): 2 first-choice applicants, 2 drawn.

Nonresident odds by bonus point (2026 drawing)

Share of first-choice nonresident applicants at each bonus-point level who drew, from FWP's 2026 bonus point report. Each applicant gets one chance plus their points squared, so the draw favors high point holders without a hard cutoff. How Montana bonus points work.

Bonus points	Chances in drawing	1st-choice applicants	Drawn	Odds at this level
0	1	3	1	33.3%
1	2	4	3	75.0%
2	5	1	1	100.0%

Nonresident outlook for 2027

If first-choice demand keeps its 2023 to 2026 trend (-2 applicants a year), about 6 nonresidents would apply in 2027; with the same number of first-choice licenses, overall first-choice odds would be about 83%. Average bonus points among first-choice applicants are trending to about 0.8 (+0.06 a year), a measure of point creep in a weighted draw. Confidence: low.

First-choice odds by year

First-choice draws over first-choice applicants in the regular drawing (landowner preference excluded).

Draw year	Quota	Res applicants	Res odds	NR applicants	NR odds
2023	50	87	52.9%	14	28.6%
2024	50	96	46.9%	19	26.3%
2025	50	68	64.7%	9	55.6%
2026	50	57	75.4%	8	62.5%

Outlook method: see the top of the Montana points explainer and our forecast method. It is a trend line, not a promise.

Notes from TagCanyon

In 2026, 57 residents listed this drawing first for a quota of 50, about 1.1 resident applicants per license.
Residents: at 0 bonus points 68% drew; at 1 points (the highest level with at least 5 applicants) 79% drew.

Deadline

Elk B, deer B, antelope and antelope B licenses: FWP's 2026 window ran Mar 1 to Jun 1, 2026 (11:45 p.m. Mountain). FWP has not posted 2027 dates yet; the June 1 deadline has held in recent years. FWP application and drawing dates.

Source: Montana Fish, Wildlife & Parks (FWP), 2026 Drawing Statistics reports (MyFWP drawing statistics, FWP application and drawing dates). Tables, outlooks and text are TagCanyon's own; FWP does not warrant or endorse them. Not affiliated with FWP. Retrieved Oct 17, 2026.