441-50 Deer Permit Draw Odds, Montana

Deer permit, district 441-50 (mule), from FWP's 2023 to 2026 drawing statistics. Jump to resident odds or nonresident odds.

Fact	Value
Drawing	Deer permit, district 441-50 (mule)
2026 total quota	35
2026 nonresident cap (FWP's NR quota column)	3
2026 landowner preference cap: resident / nonresident	6 / 3
2026 first-choice applicants: resident / nonresident	911 / 16
2026 drawn on first choice: resident / nonresident	29 / 0
2026 first-choice odds: resident / nonresident	3.2% / 0.0%
2026 total successful (all choices and pools)	35

Resident odds by bonus point (2026 drawing)

Share of first-choice resident applicants at each bonus-point level who drew, from FWP's 2026 bonus point report. Each applicant gets one chance plus their points squared, so the draw favors high point holders without a hard cutoff. How Montana bonus points work.

Bonus points	Chances in drawing	1st-choice applicants	Drawn	Odds at this level
0	1	82	0	0.0%
1	2	140	0	0.0%
2	5	115	1	0.9%
3	10	87	0	0.0%
4	17	99	2	2.0%
5	26	49	1	2.0%
6	37	62	2	3.2%
7	50	39	1	2.6%
8	65	37	0	0.0%
9	82	39	1	2.6%
10	101	30	0	0.0%
11	122	20	1	5.0%
12	145	27	4	14.8%
13	170	19	2	10.5%
14	197	22	5	22.7%
15	226	16	3	18.8%
16	257	10	3	30.0%
17	290	5	2	40.0%
18	325	4	0	0.0%
19	362	5	1	20.0%

Resident outlook for 2027

If first-choice demand keeps its 2023 to 2026 trend (+7 applicants a year), about 918 residents would apply in 2027; with the same number of first-choice licenses, overall first-choice odds would be about 3%. Average bonus points among first-choice applicants are trending to about 5.2 (+0.11 a year), a measure of point creep in a weighted draw. Confidence: medium.

Landowner preference (residents, 2026): 10 first-choice applicants, 6 drawn.

Nonresident odds by bonus point (2026 drawing)

Share of first-choice nonresident applicants at each bonus-point level who drew, from FWP's 2026 bonus point report. Each applicant gets one chance plus their points squared, so the draw favors high point holders without a hard cutoff. How Montana bonus points work.

Bonus points	Chances in drawing	1st-choice applicants	Odds at this level
0	1	1	0.0%
1	2	2	0.0%
2	5	2	0.0%
3	10	1	0.0%
4	17	1	0.0%
6	37	2	0.0%
9	82	2	0.0%
11	122	1	0.0%
12	145	1	0.0%
15	226	1	0.0%
18	325	1	0.0%

Nonresident outlook for 2027

If first-choice demand keeps its 2023 to 2026 trend (-5 applicants a year), about 11 nonresidents would apply in 2027; with the same number of first-choice licenses, overall first-choice odds would be about 0%. Average bonus points among first-choice applicants are trending to about 7.3 (+0.74 a year), a measure of point creep in a weighted draw. Confidence: low.

Landowner preference (nonresidents, 2026): 1 first-choice applicants, 0 drawn.

First-choice odds by year

First-choice draws over first-choice applicants in the regular drawing (landowner preference excluded).

Draw year	Quota	Res applicants	Res odds	NR applicants	NR odds
2023	35	889	3.1%	31	3.2%
2024	35	926	3.0%	21	4.8%
2025	35	804	3.6%	20	0.0%
2026	35	911	3.2%	16	0.0%

Outlook method: see the top of the Montana points explainer and our forecast method. It is a trend line, not a promise.

Notes from TagCanyon

In 2026, 911 residents listed this drawing first for a quota of 35, about 26.0 resident applicants per license.
Residents: at 0 bonus points 0% drew; at 19 points (the highest level with at least 5 applicants) 20% drew.

Deadline

Deer and elk permits: FWP's 2026 window ran Mar 1 to Apr 1, 2026 (11:45 p.m. Mountain), with results in mid-April. FWP has not posted 2027 dates yet; the April 1 deadline has held in recent years. FWP application and drawing dates.

Source: Montana Fish, Wildlife & Parks (FWP), 2026 Drawing Statistics reports (MyFWP drawing statistics, FWP application and drawing dates). Tables, outlooks and text are TagCanyon's own; FWP does not warrant or endorse them. Not affiliated with FWP. Retrieved Oct 17, 2026.