417-50 Deer Permit Draw Odds, Montana

Deer permit, district 417-50 (mule), from FWP's 2024 to 2026 drawing statistics. Jump to resident odds or nonresident odds.

Fact	Value
Drawing	Deer permit, district 417-50 (mule)
2026 total quota	100
2026 nonresident cap (FWP's NR quota column)	10
2026 landowner preference cap: resident / nonresident	15 / 10
2026 first-choice applicants: resident / nonresident	453 / 76
2026 drawn on first choice: resident / nonresident	80 / 5
2026 first-choice odds: resident / nonresident	17.7% / 6.6%
2026 total successful (all choices and pools)	100

Resident odds by bonus point (2026 drawing)

Share of first-choice resident applicants at each bonus-point level who drew, from FWP's 2026 bonus point report. Each applicant gets one chance plus their points squared, so the draw favors high point holders without a hard cutoff. How Montana bonus points work.

Bonus points	Chances in drawing	1st-choice applicants	Drawn	Odds at this level
0	1	62	1	1.6%
1	2	193	14	7.3%
2	5	107	20	18.7%
3	10	34	9	26.5%
4	17	20	12	60.0%
5	26	5	3	60.0%
6	37	8	7	87.5%
7	50	6	5	83.3%
8	65	3	2	66.7%
9	82	4	3	75.0%
10	101	1	0	0.0%
11	122	2	1	50.0%
15	226	2	2	100.0%
16	257	1	0	0.0%
21	442	1	1	100.0%

Resident outlook for 2027

If first-choice demand keeps its 2024 to 2026 trend (+142 applicants a year), about 594 residents would apply in 2027; with the same number of first-choice licenses, overall first-choice odds would be about 13%. Average bonus points among first-choice applicants are trending to about 1.9 (+0.02 a year), a measure of point creep in a weighted draw. Confidence: low.

Landowner preference (residents, 2026): 14 first-choice applicants, 10 drawn.

Nonresident odds by bonus point (2026 drawing)

Share of first-choice nonresident applicants at each bonus-point level who drew, from FWP's 2026 bonus point report. Each applicant gets one chance plus their points squared, so the draw favors high point holders without a hard cutoff. How Montana bonus points work.

Bonus points	Chances in drawing	1st-choice applicants	Drawn	Odds at this level
0	1	7	0	0.0%
1	2	26	1	3.8%
2	5	19	0	0.0%
3	10	15	0	0.0%
4	17	1	0	0.0%
5	26	3	1	33.3%
6	37	2	1	50.0%
8	65	1	1	100.0%
9	82	1	1	100.0%
10	101	1	0	0.0%

Nonresident outlook for 2027

If first-choice demand keeps its 2024 to 2026 trend (+4 applicants a year), about 80 nonresidents would apply in 2027; with the same number of first-choice licenses, overall first-choice odds would be about 6%. Average bonus points among first-choice applicants are trending to about 2.7 (+0.48 a year), a measure of point creep in a weighted draw. Confidence: low.

Landowner preference (nonresidents, 2026): 5 first-choice applicants, 5 drawn.

First-choice odds by year

First-choice draws over first-choice applicants in the regular drawing (landowner preference excluded).

Draw year	Quota	Res applicants	Res odds	NR applicants	NR odds
2024	100	170	47.1%	68	14.7%
2025	100	281	28.5%	56	10.7%
2026	100	453	17.7%	76	6.6%

Outlook method: see the top of the Montana points explainer and our forecast method. It is a trend line, not a promise.

Notes from TagCanyon

In 2026, 453 residents listed this drawing first for a quota of 100, about 4.5 resident applicants per license.
Residents: at 0 bonus points 2% drew; at 7 points (the highest level with at least 5 applicants) 83% drew.
Nonresidents: at 0 bonus points 0% drew; at 3 points (the highest level with at least 5 applicants) 0% drew.

Deadline

Deer and elk permits: FWP's 2026 window ran Mar 1 to Apr 1, 2026 (11:45 p.m. Mountain), with results in mid-April. FWP has not posted 2027 dates yet; the April 1 deadline has held in recent years. FWP application and drawing dates.

Source: Montana Fish, Wildlife & Parks (FWP), 2026 Drawing Statistics reports (MyFWP drawing statistics, FWP application and drawing dates). Tables, outlooks and text are TagCanyon's own; FWP does not warrant or endorse them. Not affiliated with FWP. Retrieved Oct 17, 2026.