410-50 Deer Permit Draw Odds, Montana

Deer permit, district 410-50 (mule), from FWP's 2024 to 2026 drawing statistics. Jump to resident odds or nonresident odds.

Fact	Value
Drawing	Deer permit, district 410-50 (mule)
2026 total quota	100
2026 nonresident cap (FWP's NR quota column)	10
2026 landowner preference cap: resident / nonresident	15 / 10
2026 first-choice applicants: resident / nonresident	1,039 / 134
2026 drawn on first choice: resident / nonresident	80 / 5
2026 first-choice odds: resident / nonresident	7.7% / 3.7%
2026 total successful (all choices and pools)	100

Resident odds by bonus point (2026 drawing)

Share of first-choice resident applicants at each bonus-point level who drew, from FWP's 2026 bonus point report. Each applicant gets one chance plus their points squared, so the draw favors high point holders without a hard cutoff. How Montana bonus points work.

Bonus points	Chances in drawing	1st-choice applicants	Drawn	Odds at this level
0	1	154	1	0.6%
1	2	328	4	1.2%
2	5	250	13	5.2%
3	10	128	13	10.2%
4	17	45	3	6.7%
5	26	37	10	27.0%
6	37	24	6	25.0%
7	50	18	7	38.9%
8	65	9	3	33.3%
9	82	7	3	42.9%
10	101	7	4	57.1%
11	122	5	3	60.0%
12	145	3	2	66.7%
13	170	4	3	75.0%
14	197	3	2	66.7%
15	226	2	2	100.0%
16	257	1	1	100.0%

Resident outlook for 2027

If first-choice demand keeps its 2024 to 2026 trend (+316 applicants a year), about 1,355 residents would apply in 2027; with the same number of first-choice licenses, overall first-choice odds would be about 6%. Average bonus points among first-choice applicants are trending to about 2.6 (+0.40 a year), a measure of point creep in a weighted draw. Confidence: low.

Landowner preference (residents, 2026): 24 first-choice applicants, 10 drawn.

Nonresident odds by bonus point (2026 drawing)

Share of first-choice nonresident applicants at each bonus-point level who drew, from FWP's 2026 bonus point report. Each applicant gets one chance plus their points squared, so the draw favors high point holders without a hard cutoff. How Montana bonus points work.

Bonus points	Chances in drawing	1st-choice applicants	Drawn	Odds at this level
0	1	16	0	0.0%
1	2	34	1	2.9%
2	5	26	0	0.0%
3	10	20	0	0.0%
4	17	13	1	7.7%
5	26	7	0	0.0%
6	37	2	0	0.0%
7	50	7	0	0.0%
8	65	1	1	100.0%
9	82	1	0	0.0%
10	101	1	1	100.0%
11	122	1	0	0.0%
12	145	1	1	100.0%

Nonresident outlook for 2027

If first-choice demand keeps its 2024 to 2026 trend (+26 applicants a year), about 160 nonresidents would apply in 2027; with the same number of first-choice licenses, overall first-choice odds would be about 3%. Average bonus points among first-choice applicants are trending to about 3.3 (+0.67 a year), a measure of point creep in a weighted draw. Confidence: low.

Landowner preference (nonresidents, 2026): 9 first-choice applicants, 5 drawn.

First-choice odds by year

First-choice draws over first-choice applicants in the regular drawing (landowner preference excluded).

Draw year	Quota	Res applicants	Res odds	NR applicants	NR odds
2024	100	407	19.7%	83	6.0%
2025	100	701	11.1%	127	5.5%
2026	100	1,039	7.7%	134	3.7%

Outlook method: see the top of the Montana points explainer and our forecast method. It is a trend line, not a promise.

Notes from TagCanyon

In 2026, 1,039 residents listed this drawing first for a quota of 100, about 10.4 resident applicants per license.
Residents: at 0 bonus points 1% drew; at 11 points (the highest level with at least 5 applicants) 60% drew.
Nonresidents: at 0 bonus points 0% drew; at 7 points (the highest level with at least 5 applicants) 0% drew.

Deadline

Deer and elk permits: FWP's 2026 window ran Mar 1 to Apr 1, 2026 (11:45 p.m. Mountain), with results in mid-April. FWP has not posted 2027 dates yet; the April 1 deadline has held in recent years. FWP application and drawing dates.

Source: Montana Fish, Wildlife & Parks (FWP), 2026 Drawing Statistics reports (MyFWP drawing statistics, FWP application and drawing dates). Tables, outlooks and text are TagCanyon's own; FWP does not warrant or endorse them. Not affiliated with FWP. Retrieved Oct 17, 2026.