406-50 Deer Permit Draw Odds, Montana

Deer permit, district 406-50 (mule), from FWP's 2023 to 2026 drawing statistics. Jump to resident odds or nonresident odds.

Fact	Value
Drawing	Deer permit, district 406-50 (mule)
2026 total quota	45
2026 nonresident cap (FWP's NR quota column)	4
2026 landowner preference cap: resident / nonresident	7 / 4
2026 first-choice applicants: resident / nonresident	75 / 2
2026 drawn on first choice: resident / nonresident	42 / 1
2026 first-choice odds: resident / nonresident	56.0% / 50.0%
2026 total successful (all choices and pools)	45

Resident odds by bonus point (2026 drawing)

Share of first-choice resident applicants at each bonus-point level who drew, from FWP's 2026 bonus point report. Each applicant gets one chance plus their points squared, so the draw favors high point holders without a hard cutoff. How Montana bonus points work.

Bonus points	Chances in drawing	1st-choice applicants	Drawn	Odds at this level
0	1	16	4	25.0%
1	2	30	14	46.7%
2	5	11	8	72.7%
3	10	7	6	85.7%
4	17	5	5	100.0%
5	26	2	1	50.0%
7	50	1	1	100.0%
8	65	1	1	100.0%
9	82	1	1	100.0%
12	145	1	1	100.0%

Resident outlook for 2027

If first-choice demand keeps its 2023 to 2026 trend (+3 applicants a year), about 78 residents would apply in 2027; with the same number of first-choice licenses, overall first-choice odds would be about 54%. Average bonus points among first-choice applicants are trending to about 1.8 (-0.02 a year), a measure of point creep in a weighted draw. Confidence: low.

Landowner preference (residents, 2026): 2 first-choice applicants, 2 drawn.

Nonresident odds by bonus point (2026 drawing)

Share of first-choice nonresident applicants at each bonus-point level who drew, from FWP's 2026 bonus point report. Each applicant gets one chance plus their points squared, so the draw favors high point holders without a hard cutoff. How Montana bonus points work.

Bonus points	Chances in drawing	1st-choice applicants	Drawn	Odds at this level
0	1	2	1	50.0%

Nonresident outlook for 2027

If first-choice demand keeps its 2023 to 2026 trend (-1 applicants a year), about 1 nonresidents would apply in 2027; with the same number of first-choice licenses, overall first-choice odds would be about 100%. Average bonus points among first-choice applicants are trending to about -0.6 (-0.58 a year), a measure of point creep in a weighted draw. Confidence: low.

First-choice odds by year

First-choice draws over first-choice applicants in the regular drawing (landowner preference excluded).

Draw year	Quota	Res applicants	Res odds	NR applicants	NR odds
2023	40	65	53.8%	6	66.7%
2024	45	50	88.0%	0	—
2025	45	66	63.6%	2	50.0%
2026	45	75	56.0%	2	50.0%

Outlook method: see the top of the Montana points explainer and our forecast method. It is a trend line, not a promise.

Notes from TagCanyon

In 2026, 75 residents listed this drawing first for a quota of 45, about 1.7 resident applicants per license.
Residents: at 0 bonus points 25% drew; at 4 points (the highest level with at least 5 applicants) 100% drew.

Deadline

Deer and elk permits: FWP's 2026 window ran Mar 1 to Apr 1, 2026 (11:45 p.m. Mountain), with results in mid-April. FWP has not posted 2027 dates yet; the April 1 deadline has held in recent years. FWP application and drawing dates.

Source: Montana Fish, Wildlife & Parks (FWP), 2026 Drawing Statistics reports (MyFWP drawing statistics, FWP application and drawing dates). Tables, outlooks and text are TagCanyon's own; FWP does not warrant or endorse them. Not affiliated with FWP. Retrieved Oct 17, 2026.