380-50 Deer Permit Draw Odds, Montana

Deer permit, district 380-50 (mule), from FWP's 2023 to 2026 drawing statistics. Jump to resident odds or nonresident odds.

Fact	Value
Drawing	Deer permit, district 380-50 (mule)
2026 total quota	700
2026 nonresident cap (FWP's NR quota column)	70
2026 landowner preference cap: resident / nonresident	105 / 70
2026 first-choice applicants: resident / nonresident	1,431 / 66
2026 drawn on first choice: resident / nonresident	652 / 39
2026 first-choice odds: resident / nonresident	45.6% / 59.1%
2026 total successful (all choices and pools)	700

Resident odds by bonus point (2026 drawing)

Share of first-choice resident applicants at each bonus-point level who drew, from FWP's 2026 bonus point report. Each applicant gets one chance plus their points squared, so the draw favors high point holders without a hard cutoff. How Montana bonus points work.

Bonus points	Chances in drawing	1st-choice applicants	Drawn	Odds at this level
0	1	504	143	28.4%
1	2	629	267	42.4%
2	5	206	154	74.8%
3	10	34	31	91.2%
4	17	24	23	95.8%
5	26	10	10	100.0%
6	37	6	6	100.0%
7	50	5	5	100.0%
8	65	5	5	100.0%
9	82	1	1	100.0%
10	101	2	2	100.0%
11	122	2	2	100.0%
13	170	3	3	100.0%

Resident outlook for 2027

If first-choice demand keeps its 2023 to 2026 trend (+134 applicants a year), about 1,565 residents would apply in 2027; with the same number of first-choice licenses, overall first-choice odds would be about 42%. Average bonus points among first-choice applicants are trending to about 1.2 (+0.17 a year), a measure of point creep in a weighted draw. Confidence: medium.

Landowner preference (residents, 2026): 9 first-choice applicants, 9 drawn.

Nonresident odds by bonus point (2026 drawing)

Share of first-choice nonresident applicants at each bonus-point level who drew, from FWP's 2026 bonus point report. Each applicant gets one chance plus their points squared, so the draw favors high point holders without a hard cutoff. How Montana bonus points work.

Bonus points	Chances in drawing	1st-choice applicants	Drawn	Odds at this level
0	1	17	5	29.4%
1	2	27	14	51.9%
2	5	12	10	83.3%
3	10	4	4	100.0%
4	17	5	5	100.0%
6	37	1	1	100.0%

Nonresident outlook for 2027

If first-choice demand keeps its 2023 to 2026 trend (+8 applicants a year), about 74 nonresidents would apply in 2027; with the same number of first-choice licenses, overall first-choice odds would be about 53%. Average bonus points among first-choice applicants are trending to about 1.4 (+0.07 a year), a measure of point creep in a weighted draw. Confidence: low.

First-choice odds by year

First-choice draws over first-choice applicants in the regular drawing (landowner preference excluded).

Draw year	Quota	Res applicants	Res odds	NR applicants	NR odds
2023	950	1,029	87.9%	43	95.3%
2024	950	1,202	76.0%	42	71.4%
2025	700	1,253	52.0%	66	60.6%
2026	700	1,431	45.6%	66	59.1%

Outlook method: see the top of the Montana points explainer and our forecast method. It is a trend line, not a promise.

Notes from TagCanyon

In 2026, 1,431 residents listed this drawing first for a quota of 700, about 2.0 resident applicants per license.
Residents: at 0 bonus points 28% drew; at 8 points (the highest level with at least 5 applicants) 100% drew.
Nonresidents: at 0 bonus points 29% drew; at 4 points (the highest level with at least 5 applicants) 100% drew.

Deadline

Deer and elk permits: FWP's 2026 window ran Mar 1 to Apr 1, 2026 (11:45 p.m. Mountain), with results in mid-April. FWP has not posted 2027 dates yet; the April 1 deadline has held in recent years. FWP application and drawing dates.

Source: Montana Fish, Wildlife & Parks (FWP), 2026 Drawing Statistics reports (MyFWP drawing statistics, FWP application and drawing dates). Tables, outlooks and text are TagCanyon's own; FWP does not warrant or endorse them. Not affiliated with FWP. Retrieved Oct 17, 2026.