319-50 Deer Permit Draw Odds, Montana

Deer permit, district 319-50 (mule), from FWP's 2023 to 2026 drawing statistics. Jump to resident odds or nonresident odds.

Fact	Value
Drawing	Deer permit, district 319-50 (mule)
2026 total quota	125
2026 nonresident cap (FWP's NR quota column)	12
2026 landowner preference cap: resident / nonresident	19 / 12
2026 first-choice applicants: resident / nonresident	658 / 74
2026 drawn on first choice: resident / nonresident	111 / 12
2026 first-choice odds: resident / nonresident	16.9% / 16.2%
2026 total successful (all choices and pools)	125

Resident odds by bonus point (2026 drawing)

Share of first-choice resident applicants at each bonus-point level who drew, from FWP's 2026 bonus point report. Each applicant gets one chance plus their points squared, so the draw favors high point holders without a hard cutoff. How Montana bonus points work.

Bonus points	Chances in drawing	1st-choice applicants	Drawn	Odds at this level
0	1	148	4	2.7%
1	2	203	13	6.4%
2	5	166	29	17.5%
3	10	69	23	33.3%
4	17	30	15	50.0%
5	26	11	3	27.3%
6	37	11	8	72.7%
7	50	5	4	80.0%
8	65	6	4	66.7%
9	82	1	1	100.0%
10	101	2	1	50.0%
11	122	2	2	100.0%
13	170	1	1	100.0%
14	197	1	1	100.0%
16	257	1	1	100.0%
17	290	1	1	100.0%

Resident outlook for 2027

If first-choice demand keeps its 2023 to 2026 trend (+116 applicants a year), about 774 residents would apply in 2027; with the same number of first-choice licenses, overall first-choice odds would be about 14%. Average bonus points among first-choice applicants are trending to about 2.0 (+0.25 a year), a measure of point creep in a weighted draw. Confidence: low.

Landowner preference (residents, 2026): 2 first-choice applicants, 2 drawn.

Nonresident odds by bonus point (2026 drawing)

Share of first-choice nonresident applicants at each bonus-point level who drew, from FWP's 2026 bonus point report. Each applicant gets one chance plus their points squared, so the draw favors high point holders without a hard cutoff. How Montana bonus points work.

Bonus points	Chances in drawing	1st-choice applicants	Drawn	Odds at this level
0	1	6	0	0.0%
1	2	33	5	15.2%
2	5	23	3	13.0%
3	10	5	0	0.0%
4	17	3	0	0.0%
5	26	3	3	100.0%
6	37	1	1	100.0%

Nonresident outlook for 2027

If first-choice demand keeps its 2023 to 2026 trend (+9 applicants a year), about 83 nonresidents would apply in 2027; with the same number of first-choice licenses, overall first-choice odds would be about 14%. Average bonus points among first-choice applicants are trending to about 1.9 (+0.22 a year), a measure of point creep in a weighted draw. Confidence: medium.

First-choice odds by year

First-choice draws over first-choice applicants in the regular drawing (landowner preference excluded).

Draw year	Quota	Res applicants	Res odds	NR applicants	NR odds
2023	125	311	36.0%	46	23.9%
2024	125	392	28.8%	53	18.9%
2025	125	568	19.9%	62	17.7%
2026	125	658	16.9%	74	16.2%

Outlook method: see the top of the Montana points explainer and our forecast method. It is a trend line, not a promise.

Notes from TagCanyon

In 2026, 658 residents listed this drawing first for a quota of 125, about 5.3 resident applicants per license.
Residents: at 0 bonus points 3% drew; at 8 points (the highest level with at least 5 applicants) 67% drew.
Nonresidents: at 0 bonus points 0% drew; at 3 points (the highest level with at least 5 applicants) 0% drew.

Deadline

Deer and elk permits: FWP's 2026 window ran Mar 1 to Apr 1, 2026 (11:45 p.m. Mountain), with results in mid-April. FWP has not posted 2027 dates yet; the April 1 deadline has held in recent years. FWP application and drawing dates.

Source: Montana Fish, Wildlife & Parks (FWP), 2026 Drawing Statistics reports (MyFWP drawing statistics, FWP application and drawing dates). Tables, outlooks and text are TagCanyon's own; FWP does not warrant or endorse them. Not affiliated with FWP. Retrieved Oct 17, 2026.