315-01 Deer B License Draw Odds, Montana

Deer b license, district 315-01 (wt), from FWP's 2023 to 2026 drawing statistics. Jump to resident odds or nonresident odds.

Fact	Value
Drawing	Deer b license, district 315-01 (wt)
2026 total quota	250
2026 nonresident cap (FWP's NR quota column)	25
2026 landowner preference cap: resident / nonresident	38 / 25
2026 first-choice applicants: resident / nonresident	102 / 14
2026 drawn on first choice: resident / nonresident	102 / 14
2026 first-choice odds: resident / nonresident	100.0% / 100.0%
2026 total successful (all choices and pools)	188

Resident odds by bonus point (2026 drawing)

Share of first-choice resident applicants at each bonus-point level who drew, from FWP's 2026 bonus point report. Each applicant gets one chance plus their points squared, so the draw favors high point holders without a hard cutoff. How Montana bonus points work.

Bonus points	Chances in drawing	1st-choice applicants	Drawn	Odds at this level
0	1	62	62	100.0%
1	2	31	31	100.0%
2	5	7	7	100.0%
3	10	1	1	100.0%
4	17	1	1	100.0%

Resident outlook for 2027

If first-choice demand keeps its 2023 to 2026 trend (+8 applicants a year), about 110 residents would apply in 2027; with the same number of first-choice licenses, overall first-choice odds would be about 93%. Average bonus points among first-choice applicants are trending to about 0.5 (+0.00 a year), a measure of point creep in a weighted draw. Confidence: medium.

Nonresident odds by bonus point (2026 drawing)

Share of first-choice nonresident applicants at each bonus-point level who drew, from FWP's 2026 bonus point report. Each applicant gets one chance plus their points squared, so the draw favors high point holders without a hard cutoff. How Montana bonus points work.

Bonus points	Chances in drawing	1st-choice applicants	Drawn	Odds at this level
0	1	8	8	100.0%
1	2	6	6	100.0%

Nonresident outlook for 2027

If first-choice demand keeps its 2023 to 2026 trend (+1 applicants a year), about 15 nonresidents would apply in 2027; with the same number of first-choice licenses, overall first-choice odds would be about 95%. Average bonus points among first-choice applicants are trending to about 0.5 (+0.06 a year), a measure of point creep in a weighted draw. Confidence: low.

First-choice odds by year

First-choice draws over first-choice applicants in the regular drawing (landowner preference excluded).

Draw year	Quota	Res applicants	Res odds	NR applicants	NR odds
2023	250	78	100.0%	12	100.0%
2024	250	69	100.0%	7	100.0%
2025	250	83	100.0%	8	100.0%
2026	250	102	100.0%	14	100.0%

Outlook method: see the top of the Montana points explainer and our forecast method. It is a trend line, not a promise.

Notes from TagCanyon

In 2026, 102 residents listed this drawing first for a quota of 250, about 0.4 resident applicants per license.
Licenses still went to second or third choices in 2026, so the drawing did not fill on first choice.
FWP reported 62 left as surplus after the 2026 drawing.
Residents: at 0 bonus points 100% drew; at 2 points (the highest level with at least 5 applicants) 100% drew.
Nonresidents: at 0 bonus points 100% drew; at 1 points (the highest level with at least 5 applicants) 100% drew.

Deadline

Elk B, deer B, antelope and antelope B licenses: FWP's 2026 window ran Mar 1 to Jun 1, 2026 (11:45 p.m. Mountain). FWP has not posted 2027 dates yet; the June 1 deadline has held in recent years. FWP application and drawing dates.

Source: Montana Fish, Wildlife & Parks (FWP), 2026 Drawing Statistics reports (MyFWP drawing statistics, FWP application and drawing dates). Tables, outlooks and text are TagCanyon's own; FWP does not warrant or endorse them. Not affiliated with FWP. Retrieved Oct 17, 2026.