312-50 Deer Permit Draw Odds, Montana

Deer permit, district 312-50 (mule), from FWP's 2023 to 2026 drawing statistics. Jump to resident odds or nonresident odds.

Fact	Value
Drawing	Deer permit, district 312-50 (mule)
2026 total quota	40
2026 nonresident cap (FWP's NR quota column)	4
2026 landowner preference cap: resident / nonresident	6 / 4
2026 first-choice applicants: resident / nonresident	1,023 / 21
2026 drawn on first choice: resident / nonresident	36 / 1
2026 first-choice odds: resident / nonresident	3.5% / 4.8%
2026 total successful (all choices and pools)	40

Resident odds by bonus point (2026 drawing)

Share of first-choice resident applicants at each bonus-point level who drew, from FWP's 2026 bonus point report. Each applicant gets one chance plus their points squared, so the draw favors high point holders without a hard cutoff. How Montana bonus points work.

Bonus points	Chances in drawing	1st-choice applicants	Drawn	Odds at this level
0	1	131	1	0.8%
1	2	222	0	0.0%
2	5	174	1	0.6%
3	10	122	3	2.5%
4	17	108	1	0.9%
5	26	72	3	4.2%
6	37	68	10	14.7%
7	50	49	6	12.2%
8	65	28	2	7.1%
9	82	18	2	11.1%
10	101	16	2	12.5%
11	122	8	3	37.5%
12	145	2	1	50.0%
13	170	1	0	0.0%
14	197	4	1	25.0%

Resident outlook for 2027

If first-choice demand keeps its 2023 to 2026 trend (+59 applicants a year), about 1,082 residents would apply in 2027; with the same number of first-choice licenses, overall first-choice odds would be about 3%. Average bonus points among first-choice applicants are trending to about 3.3 (+0.19 a year), a measure of point creep in a weighted draw. Confidence: medium.

Landowner preference (residents, 2026): 3 first-choice applicants, 3 drawn.

Nonresident odds by bonus point (2026 drawing)

Share of first-choice nonresident applicants at each bonus-point level who drew, from FWP's 2026 bonus point report. Each applicant gets one chance plus their points squared, so the draw favors high point holders without a hard cutoff. How Montana bonus points work.

Bonus points	Chances in drawing	1st-choice applicants	Drawn	Odds at this level
0	1	4	0	0.0%
1	2	6	0	0.0%
2	5	3	0	0.0%
3	10	1	0	0.0%
4	17	1	0	0.0%
5	26	3	0	0.0%
6	37	1	0	0.0%
7	50	2	1	50.0%

Nonresident outlook for 2027

If first-choice demand keeps its 2023 to 2026 trend (+2 applicants a year), about 23 nonresidents would apply in 2027; with the same number of first-choice licenses, overall first-choice odds would be about 4%. Average bonus points among first-choice applicants are trending to about 3.0 (+0.44 a year), a measure of point creep in a weighted draw. Confidence: low.

First-choice odds by year

First-choice draws over first-choice applicants in the regular drawing (landowner preference excluded).

Draw year	Quota	Res applicants	Res odds	NR applicants	NR odds
2023	40	847	4.5%	16	0.0%
2024	40	879	4.0%	24	0.0%
2025	40	887	4.1%	24	0.0%
2026	40	1,023	3.5%	21	4.8%

Outlook method: see the top of the Montana points explainer and our forecast method. It is a trend line, not a promise.

Notes from TagCanyon

In 2026, 1,023 residents listed this drawing first for a quota of 40, about 25.6 resident applicants per license.
Residents: at 0 bonus points 1% drew; at 11 points (the highest level with at least 5 applicants) 38% drew.

Deadline

Deer and elk permits: FWP's 2026 window ran Mar 1 to Apr 1, 2026 (11:45 p.m. Mountain), with results in mid-April. FWP has not posted 2027 dates yet; the April 1 deadline has held in recent years. FWP application and drawing dates.

Source: Montana Fish, Wildlife & Parks (FWP), 2026 Drawing Statistics reports (MyFWP drawing statistics, FWP application and drawing dates). Tables, outlooks and text are TagCanyon's own; FWP does not warrant or endorse them. Not affiliated with FWP. Retrieved Oct 17, 2026.