311-01 Deer B License Draw Odds, Montana

Deer b license, district 311-01 (mule), from FWP's 2023 to 2026 drawing statistics. Jump to resident odds or nonresident odds.

Fact	Value
Drawing	Deer b license, district 311-01 (mule)
2026 total quota	200
2026 nonresident cap (FWP's NR quota column)	20
2026 landowner preference cap: resident / nonresident	30 / 20
2026 first-choice applicants: resident / nonresident	311 / 16
2026 drawn on first choice: resident / nonresident	192 / 8
2026 first-choice odds: resident / nonresident	61.7% / 50.0%
2026 total successful (all choices and pools)	200

Resident odds by bonus point (2026 drawing)

Share of first-choice resident applicants at each bonus-point level who drew, from FWP's 2026 bonus point report. Each applicant gets one chance plus their points squared, so the draw favors high point holders without a hard cutoff. How Montana bonus points work.

Bonus points	Chances in drawing	1st-choice applicants	Drawn	Odds at this level
0	1	112	45	40.2%
1	2	146	98	67.1%
2	5	47	43	91.5%
3	10	6	6	100.0%

Resident outlook for 2027

If first-choice demand keeps its 2023 to 2026 trend (-3 applicants a year), about 308 residents would apply in 2027; with the same number of first-choice licenses, overall first-choice odds would be about 62%. Average bonus points among first-choice applicants are trending to about 0.9 (+0.05 a year), a measure of point creep in a weighted draw. Confidence: medium.

Nonresident odds by bonus point (2026 drawing)

Share of first-choice nonresident applicants at each bonus-point level who drew, from FWP's 2026 bonus point report. Each applicant gets one chance plus their points squared, so the draw favors high point holders without a hard cutoff. How Montana bonus points work.

Bonus points	Chances in drawing	1st-choice applicants	Drawn	Odds at this level
0	1	8	4	50.0%
1	2	6	2	33.3%
2	5	1	1	100.0%
3	10	1	1	100.0%

Nonresident outlook for 2027

If first-choice demand keeps its 2023 to 2026 trend (+1 applicants a year), about 17 nonresidents would apply in 2027; with the same number of first-choice licenses, overall first-choice odds would be about 47%. Average bonus points among first-choice applicants are trending to about 0.7 (-0.03 a year), a measure of point creep in a weighted draw. Confidence: low.

First-choice odds by year

First-choice draws over first-choice applicants in the regular drawing (landowner preference excluded).

Draw year	Quota	Res applicants	Res odds	NR applicants	NR odds
2023	200	321	58.9%	13	84.6%
2024	200	316	58.2%	27	59.3%
2025	200	319	59.2%	19	57.9%
2026	200	311	61.7%	16	50.0%

Outlook method: see the top of the Montana points explainer and our forecast method. It is a trend line, not a promise.

Notes from TagCanyon

In 2026, 311 residents listed this drawing first for a quota of 200, about 1.6 resident applicants per license.
Residents: at 0 bonus points 40% drew; at 3 points (the highest level with at least 5 applicants) 100% drew.
Nonresidents: at 0 bonus points 50% drew; at 1 points (the highest level with at least 5 applicants) 33% drew.

Deadline

Elk B, deer B, antelope and antelope B licenses: FWP's 2026 window ran Mar 1 to Jun 1, 2026 (11:45 p.m. Mountain). FWP has not posted 2027 dates yet; the June 1 deadline has held in recent years. FWP application and drawing dates.

Source: Montana Fish, Wildlife & Parks (FWP), 2026 Drawing Statistics reports (MyFWP drawing statistics, FWP application and drawing dates). Tables, outlooks and text are TagCanyon's own; FWP does not warrant or endorse them. Not affiliated with FWP. Retrieved Oct 17, 2026.