291-51 Deer Permit Draw Odds, Montana

Deer permit, district 291-51 (mule), from FWP's 2023 to 2026 drawing statistics. Jump to resident odds or nonresident odds.

Fact	Value
Drawing	Deer permit, district 291-51 (mule)
2026 total quota	30
2026 nonresident cap (FWP's NR quota column)	3
2026 landowner preference cap: resident / nonresident	5 / 3
2026 first-choice applicants: resident / nonresident	132 / 2
2026 drawn on first choice: resident / nonresident	28 / 1
2026 first-choice odds: resident / nonresident	21.2% / 50.0%
2026 total successful (all choices and pools)	30

Resident odds by bonus point (2026 drawing)

Share of first-choice resident applicants at each bonus-point level who drew, from FWP's 2026 bonus point report. Each applicant gets one chance plus their points squared, so the draw favors high point holders without a hard cutoff. How Montana bonus points work.

Bonus points	Chances in drawing	1st-choice applicants	Drawn	Odds at this level
0	1	3	0	0.0%
1	2	58	7	12.1%
2	5	39	7	17.9%
3	10	23	8	34.8%
4	17	7	4	57.1%
5	26	2	2	100.0%

Resident outlook for 2027

If first-choice demand keeps its 2023 to 2026 trend (+0 applicants a year), about 132 residents would apply in 2027; with the same number of first-choice licenses, overall first-choice odds would be about 21%. Average bonus points among first-choice applicants are trending to about 1.9 (+0.03 a year), a measure of point creep in a weighted draw. Confidence: medium.

Landowner preference (residents, 2026): 1 first-choice applicants, 1 drawn.

Nonresident odds by bonus point (2026 drawing)

Share of first-choice nonresident applicants at each bonus-point level who drew, from FWP's 2026 bonus point report. Each applicant gets one chance plus their points squared, so the draw favors high point holders without a hard cutoff. How Montana bonus points work.

Bonus points	Chances in drawing	1st-choice applicants	Drawn	Odds at this level
1	2	1	0	0.0%
3	10	1	1	100.0%

Nonresident outlook for 2027

If first-choice demand keeps its 2023 to 2026 trend (+0 applicants a year), about 2 nonresidents would apply in 2027; with the same number of first-choice licenses, overall first-choice odds would be about 50%. Average bonus points among first-choice applicants are trending to about 1.7 (-0.33 a year), a measure of point creep in a weighted draw. Confidence: low.

First-choice odds by year

First-choice draws over first-choice applicants in the regular drawing (landowner preference excluded).

Draw year	Quota	Res applicants	Res odds	NR applicants	NR odds
2023	30	132	20.5%	2	50.0%
2024	30	122	23.8%	3	0.0%
2025	30	121	24.0%	3	33.3%
2026	30	132	21.2%	2	50.0%

Outlook method: see the top of the Montana points explainer and our forecast method. It is a trend line, not a promise.

Notes from TagCanyon

In 2026, 132 residents listed this drawing first for a quota of 30, about 4.4 resident applicants per license.
Residents: at 1 bonus points 12% drew; at 4 points (the highest level with at least 5 applicants) 57% drew.

Deadline

Deer and elk permits: FWP's 2026 window ran Mar 1 to Apr 1, 2026 (11:45 p.m. Mountain), with results in mid-April. FWP has not posted 2027 dates yet; the April 1 deadline has held in recent years. FWP application and drawing dates.

Source: Montana Fish, Wildlife & Parks (FWP), 2026 Drawing Statistics reports (MyFWP drawing statistics, FWP application and drawing dates). Tables, outlooks and text are TagCanyon's own; FWP does not warrant or endorse them. Not affiliated with FWP. Retrieved Oct 17, 2026.