262-52 Deer Permit Draw Odds, Montana

Deer permit, district 262-52 (mule), from FWP's 2023 to 2026 drawing statistics. Jump to resident odds or nonresident odds.

Fact	Value
Drawing	Deer permit, district 262-52 (mule)
2026 total quota	10
2026 nonresident cap (FWP's NR quota column)	1
2026 landowner preference cap: resident / nonresident	2 / 1
2026 first-choice applicants: resident / nonresident	61 / 2
2026 drawn on first choice: resident / nonresident	9 / 1
2026 first-choice odds: resident / nonresident	14.8% / 50.0%
2026 total successful (all choices and pools)	10

Resident odds by bonus point (2026 drawing)

Share of first-choice resident applicants at each bonus-point level who drew, from FWP's 2026 bonus point report. Each applicant gets one chance plus their points squared, so the draw favors high point holders without a hard cutoff. How Montana bonus points work.

Bonus points	Chances in drawing	1st-choice applicants	Drawn	Odds at this level
0	1	2	0	0.0%
1	2	27	2	7.4%
2	5	17	2	11.8%
3	10	9	1	11.1%
4	17	5	3	60.0%
5	26	1	1	100.0%

Resident outlook for 2027

If first-choice demand keeps its 2023 to 2026 trend (+3 applicants a year), about 64 residents would apply in 2027; with the same number of first-choice licenses, overall first-choice odds would be about 14%. Average bonus points among first-choice applicants are trending to about 1.9 (+0.05 a year), a measure of point creep in a weighted draw. Confidence: medium.

Nonresident odds by bonus point (2026 drawing)

Share of first-choice nonresident applicants at each bonus-point level who drew, from FWP's 2026 bonus point report. Each applicant gets one chance plus their points squared, so the draw favors high point holders without a hard cutoff. How Montana bonus points work.

Bonus points	Chances in drawing	1st-choice applicants	Drawn	Odds at this level
3	10	1	0	0.0%
5	26	1	1	100.0%

Nonresident outlook for 2027

If first-choice demand keeps its 2023 to 2026 trend (-1 applicants a year), about 1 nonresidents would apply in 2027; with the same number of first-choice licenses, overall first-choice odds would be about 75%. Average bonus points among first-choice applicants are trending to about 4.2 (+0.17 a year), a measure of point creep in a weighted draw. Confidence: low.

First-choice odds by year

First-choice draws over first-choice applicants in the regular drawing (landowner preference excluded).

Draw year	Quota	Res applicants	Res odds	NR applicants	NR odds
2023	10	51	17.6%	4	25.0%
2024	10	52	19.2%	2	0.0%
2025	10	57	15.8%	8	12.5%
2026	10	61	14.8%	2	50.0%

Outlook method: see the top of the Montana points explainer and our forecast method. It is a trend line, not a promise.

Notes from TagCanyon

In 2026, 61 residents listed this drawing first for a quota of 10, about 6.1 resident applicants per license.
Residents: at 1 bonus points 7% drew; at 4 points (the highest level with at least 5 applicants) 60% drew.

Deadline

Deer and elk permits: FWP's 2026 window ran Mar 1 to Apr 1, 2026 (11:45 p.m. Mountain), with results in mid-April. FWP has not posted 2027 dates yet; the April 1 deadline has held in recent years. FWP application and drawing dates.

Source: Montana Fish, Wildlife & Parks (FWP), 2026 Drawing Statistics reports (MyFWP drawing statistics, FWP application and drawing dates). Tables, outlooks and text are TagCanyon's own; FWP does not warrant or endorse them. Not affiliated with FWP. Retrieved Oct 17, 2026.