262-51 Deer Permit Draw Odds, Montana

Deer permit, district 262-51 (mule), from FWP's 2023 to 2026 drawing statistics. Jump to resident odds or nonresident odds.

Fact	Value
Drawing	Deer permit, district 262-51 (mule)
2026 total quota	20
2026 nonresident cap (FWP's NR quota column)	2
2026 landowner preference cap: resident / nonresident	3 / 2
2026 first-choice applicants: resident / nonresident	308 / 11
2026 drawn on first choice: resident / nonresident	19 / 0
2026 first-choice odds: resident / nonresident	6.2% / 0.0%
2026 total successful (all choices and pools)	20

Resident odds by bonus point (2026 drawing)

Share of first-choice resident applicants at each bonus-point level who drew, from FWP's 2026 bonus point report. Each applicant gets one chance plus their points squared, so the draw favors high point holders without a hard cutoff. How Montana bonus points work.

Bonus points	Chances in drawing	1st-choice applicants	Drawn	Odds at this level
0	1	58	2	3.4%
1	2	47	1	2.1%
2	5	34	0	0.0%
3	10	27	0	0.0%
4	17	32	0	0.0%
5	26	24	1	4.2%
6	37	19	0	0.0%
7	50	11	4	36.4%
8	65	14	0	0.0%
9	82	9	0	0.0%
10	101	7	2	28.6%
11	122	5	1	20.0%
12	145	3	1	33.3%
13	170	5	1	20.0%
14	197	3	2	66.7%
15	226	3	0	0.0%
17	290	2	1	50.0%
18	325	1	1	100.0%
19	362	1	0	0.0%
20	401	1	1	100.0%
21	442	1	1	100.0%
24	577	1	0	0.0%

Resident outlook for 2027

If first-choice demand keeps its 2023 to 2026 trend (+12 applicants a year), about 320 residents would apply in 2027; with the same number of first-choice licenses, overall first-choice odds would be about 6%. Average bonus points among first-choice applicants are trending to about 4.2 (+0.02 a year), a measure of point creep in a weighted draw. Confidence: medium.

Landowner preference (residents, 2026): 1 first-choice applicants, 1 drawn.

Nonresident odds by bonus point (2026 drawing)

Share of first-choice nonresident applicants at each bonus-point level who drew, from FWP's 2026 bonus point report. Each applicant gets one chance plus their points squared, so the draw favors high point holders without a hard cutoff. How Montana bonus points work.

Bonus points	Chances in drawing	1st-choice applicants	Odds at this level
1	2	1	0.0%
2	5	2	0.0%
3	10	2	0.0%
5	26	2	0.0%
8	65	2	0.0%
10	101	1	0.0%
11	122	1	0.0%

Nonresident outlook for 2027

If first-choice demand keeps its 2023 to 2026 trend (-3 applicants a year), about 8 nonresidents would apply in 2027; with the same number of first-choice licenses, overall first-choice odds would be about 0%. Average bonus points among first-choice applicants are trending to about 5.7 (+0.39 a year), a measure of point creep in a weighted draw. Confidence: medium.

First-choice odds by year

First-choice draws over first-choice applicants in the regular drawing (landowner preference excluded).

Draw year	Quota	Res applicants	Res odds	NR applicants	NR odds
2023	20	273	7.0%	20	0.0%
2024	20	284	6.7%	16	0.0%
2025	20	274	6.9%	13	0.0%
2026	20	308	6.2%	11	0.0%

Outlook method: see the top of the Montana points explainer and our forecast method. It is a trend line, not a promise.

Notes from TagCanyon

In 2026, 308 residents listed this drawing first for a quota of 20, about 15.4 resident applicants per license.
Residents: at 0 bonus points 3% drew; at 13 points (the highest level with at least 5 applicants) 20% drew.

Deadline

Deer and elk permits: FWP's 2026 window ran Mar 1 to Apr 1, 2026 (11:45 p.m. Mountain), with results in mid-April. FWP has not posted 2027 dates yet; the April 1 deadline has held in recent years. FWP application and drawing dates.

Source: Montana Fish, Wildlife & Parks (FWP), 2026 Drawing Statistics reports (MyFWP drawing statistics, FWP application and drawing dates). Tables, outlooks and text are TagCanyon's own; FWP does not warrant or endorse them. Not affiliated with FWP. Retrieved Oct 17, 2026.