250-50 Deer Permit Draw Odds, Montana

Deer permit, district 250-50 (mule), from FWP's 2023 to 2026 drawing statistics. Jump to resident odds or nonresident odds.

Fact	Value
Drawing	Deer permit, district 250-50 (mule)
2026 total quota	25
2026 nonresident cap (FWP's NR quota column)	2
2026 landowner preference cap: resident / nonresident	4 / 2
2026 first-choice applicants: resident / nonresident	802 / 28
2026 drawn on first choice: resident / nonresident	25 / 0
2026 first-choice odds: resident / nonresident	3.1% / 0.0%
2026 total successful (all choices and pools)	25

Resident odds by bonus point (2026 drawing)

Share of first-choice resident applicants at each bonus-point level who drew, from FWP's 2026 bonus point report. Each applicant gets one chance plus their points squared, so the draw favors high point holders without a hard cutoff. How Montana bonus points work.

Bonus points	Chances in drawing	1st-choice applicants	Drawn	Odds at this level
0	1	70	0	0.0%
1	2	109	1	0.9%
2	5	95	0	0.0%
3	10	92	1	1.1%
4	17	65	0	0.0%
5	26	92	1	1.1%
6	37	52	3	5.8%
7	50	37	2	5.4%
8	65	34	3	8.8%
9	82	36	3	8.3%
10	101	33	2	6.1%
11	122	23	1	4.3%
12	145	16	1	6.2%
13	170	14	2	14.3%
14	197	7	1	14.3%
15	226	8	1	12.5%
16	257	8	1	12.5%
17	290	2	1	50.0%
19	362	1	1	100.0%
20	401	4	0	0.0%
21	442	3	0	0.0%
23	530	1	0	0.0%

Resident outlook for 2027

If first-choice demand keeps its 2023 to 2026 trend (+51 applicants a year), about 853 residents would apply in 2027; with the same number of first-choice licenses, overall first-choice odds would be about 3%. Average bonus points among first-choice applicants are trending to about 5.1 (+0.14 a year), a measure of point creep in a weighted draw. Confidence: medium.

Nonresident odds by bonus point (2026 drawing)

Share of first-choice nonresident applicants at each bonus-point level who drew, from FWP's 2026 bonus point report. Each applicant gets one chance plus their points squared, so the draw favors high point holders without a hard cutoff. How Montana bonus points work.

Bonus points	Chances in drawing	1st-choice applicants	Odds at this level
0	1	6	0.0%
1	2	4	0.0%
2	5	3	0.0%
3	10	2	0.0%
4	17	2	0.0%
5	26	3	0.0%
6	37	3	0.0%
7	50	1	0.0%
8	65	1	0.0%
10	101	2	0.0%
15	226	1	0.0%

Nonresident outlook for 2027

If first-choice demand keeps its 2023 to 2026 trend (-0 applicants a year), about 28 nonresidents would apply in 2027; with the same number of first-choice licenses, overall first-choice odds would be about 0%. Average bonus points among first-choice applicants are trending to about 3.4 (-0.40 a year), a measure of point creep in a weighted draw. Confidence: low.

First-choice odds by year

First-choice draws over first-choice applicants in the regular drawing (landowner preference excluded).

Draw year	Quota	Res applicants	Res odds	NR applicants	NR odds
2023	25	650	3.7%	29	3.4%
2024	25	678	3.5%	47	2.1%
2025	25	698	3.4%	29	3.4%
2026	25	802	3.1%	28	0.0%

Outlook method: see the top of the Montana points explainer and our forecast method. It is a trend line, not a promise.

Notes from TagCanyon

In 2026, 802 residents listed this drawing first for a quota of 25, about 32.1 resident applicants per license.
Residents: at 0 bonus points 0% drew; at 16 points (the highest level with at least 5 applicants) 12% drew.

Deadline

Deer and elk permits: FWP's 2026 window ran Mar 1 to Apr 1, 2026 (11:45 p.m. Mountain), with results in mid-April. FWP has not posted 2027 dates yet; the April 1 deadline has held in recent years. FWP application and drawing dates.

Source: Montana Fish, Wildlife & Parks (FWP), 2026 Drawing Statistics reports (MyFWP drawing statistics, FWP application and drawing dates). Tables, outlooks and text are TagCanyon's own; FWP does not warrant or endorse them. Not affiliated with FWP. Retrieved Oct 17, 2026.