210-50 Deer Permit Draw Odds, Montana

Deer permit, district 210-50 (mule), from FWP's 2023 to 2026 drawing statistics. Jump to resident odds or nonresident odds.

Fact	Value
Drawing	Deer permit, district 210-50 (mule)
2026 total quota	50
2026 nonresident cap (FWP's NR quota column)	5
2026 landowner preference cap: resident / nonresident	8 / 5
2026 first-choice applicants: resident / nonresident	969 / 27
2026 drawn on first choice: resident / nonresident	40 / 2
2026 first-choice odds: resident / nonresident	4.1% / 7.4%
2026 total successful (all choices and pools)	50

Resident odds by bonus point (2026 drawing)

Share of first-choice resident applicants at each bonus-point level who drew, from FWP's 2026 bonus point report. Each applicant gets one chance plus their points squared, so the draw favors high point holders without a hard cutoff. How Montana bonus points work.

Bonus points	Chances in drawing	1st-choice applicants	Drawn	Odds at this level
0	1	122	0	0.0%
1	2	166	0	0.0%
2	5	136	2	1.5%
3	10	108	1	0.9%
4	17	106	2	1.9%
5	26	69	1	1.4%
6	37	68	3	4.4%
7	50	54	5	9.3%
8	65	42	7	16.7%
9	82	24	2	8.3%
10	101	23	6	26.1%
11	122	11	2	18.2%
12	145	9	3	33.3%
13	170	13	3	23.1%
14	197	5	1	20.0%
15	226	1	0	0.0%
16	257	1	0	0.0%
17	290	1	0	0.0%
18	325	2	2	100.0%
22	485	1	0	0.0%

Resident outlook for 2027

If first-choice demand keeps its 2023 to 2026 trend (+40 applicants a year), about 1,009 residents would apply in 2027; with the same number of first-choice licenses, overall first-choice odds would be about 4%. Average bonus points among first-choice applicants are trending to about 4.0 (+0.17 a year), a measure of point creep in a weighted draw. Confidence: medium.

Landowner preference (residents, 2026): 15 first-choice applicants, 8 drawn.

Nonresident odds by bonus point (2026 drawing)

Share of first-choice nonresident applicants at each bonus-point level who drew, from FWP's 2026 bonus point report. Each applicant gets one chance plus their points squared, so the draw favors high point holders without a hard cutoff. How Montana bonus points work.

Bonus points	Chances in drawing	1st-choice applicants	Drawn	Odds at this level
0	1	4	0	0.0%
1	2	3	0	0.0%
2	5	3	0	0.0%
3	10	3	0	0.0%
4	17	4	1	25.0%
5	26	1	0	0.0%
6	37	4	0	0.0%
7	50	1	0	0.0%
8	65	2	0	0.0%
9	82	1	1	100.0%
11	122	1	0	0.0%

Nonresident outlook for 2027

If first-choice demand keeps its 2023 to 2026 trend (-5 applicants a year), about 22 nonresidents would apply in 2027; with the same number of first-choice licenses, overall first-choice odds would be about 9%. Average bonus points among first-choice applicants are trending to about 4.2 (+0.23 a year), a measure of point creep in a weighted draw. Confidence: medium.

First-choice odds by year

First-choice draws over first-choice applicants in the regular drawing (landowner preference excluded).

Draw year	Quota	Res applicants	Res odds	NR applicants	NR odds
2023	50	849	4.9%	43	2.3%
2024	50	818	5.1%	40	0.0%
2025	50	868	4.6%	35	5.7%
2026	50	969	4.1%	27	7.4%

Outlook method: see the top of the Montana points explainer and our forecast method. It is a trend line, not a promise.

Notes from TagCanyon

In 2026, 969 residents listed this drawing first for a quota of 50, about 19.4 resident applicants per license.
Residents: at 0 bonus points 0% drew; at 14 points (the highest level with at least 5 applicants) 20% drew.

Deadline

Deer and elk permits: FWP's 2026 window ran Mar 1 to Apr 1, 2026 (11:45 p.m. Mountain), with results in mid-April. FWP has not posted 2027 dates yet; the April 1 deadline has held in recent years. FWP application and drawing dates.

Source: Montana Fish, Wildlife & Parks (FWP), 2026 Drawing Statistics reports (MyFWP drawing statistics, FWP application and drawing dates). Tables, outlooks and text are TagCanyon's own; FWP does not warrant or endorse them. Not affiliated with FWP. Retrieved Oct 17, 2026.