199-20 Deer B License Draw Odds, Montana

Deer b license, district 199-20 (either sex wt cwd), from FWP's 2023 to 2026 drawing statistics. Jump to resident odds or nonresident odds.

Fact	Value
Drawing	Deer b license, district 199-20 (either sex wt cwd)
2026 total quota	2,000
2026 nonresident cap (FWP's NR quota column)	200
2026 landowner preference cap: resident / nonresident	300 / 200
2026 first-choice applicants: resident / nonresident	649 / 320
2026 drawn on first choice: resident / nonresident	649 / 320
2026 first-choice odds: resident / nonresident	100.0% / 100.0%
2026 total successful (all choices and pools)	1,198

Resident odds by bonus point (2026 drawing)

Share of first-choice resident applicants at each bonus-point level who drew, from FWP's 2026 bonus point report. Each applicant gets one chance plus their points squared, so the draw favors high point holders without a hard cutoff. How Montana bonus points work.

Bonus points	Chances in drawing	1st-choice applicants	Drawn	Odds at this level
0	1	359	359	100.0%
1	2	244	244	100.0%
2	5	32	32	100.0%
3	10	9	9	100.0%
4	17	4	4	100.0%
5	26	1	1	100.0%

Resident outlook for 2027

If first-choice demand keeps its 2023 to 2026 trend (+50 applicants a year), about 699 residents would apply in 2027; with the same number of first-choice licenses, overall first-choice odds would be about 93%. Average bonus points among first-choice applicants are trending to about 0.5 (-0.03 a year), a measure of point creep in a weighted draw. Confidence: medium.

Nonresident odds by bonus point (2026 drawing)

Share of first-choice nonresident applicants at each bonus-point level who drew, from FWP's 2026 bonus point report. Each applicant gets one chance plus their points squared, so the draw favors high point holders without a hard cutoff. How Montana bonus points work.

Bonus points	Chances in drawing	1st-choice applicants	Drawn	Odds at this level
0	1	224	224	100.0%
1	2	88	88	100.0%
2	5	4	4	100.0%
3	10	2	2	100.0%
4	17	2	2	100.0%

Nonresident outlook for 2027

If first-choice demand keeps its 2023 to 2026 trend (+55 applicants a year), about 375 nonresidents would apply in 2027; with the same number of first-choice licenses, overall first-choice odds would be about 85%. Average bonus points among first-choice applicants are trending to about 0.3 (-0.03 a year), a measure of point creep in a weighted draw. Confidence: low.

First-choice odds by year

First-choice draws over first-choice applicants in the regular drawing (landowner preference excluded).

Draw year	Quota	Res applicants	Res odds	NR applicants	NR odds
2023	2,000	498	100.0%	155	100.0%
2024	2,000	512	100.0%	186	100.0%
2025	2,000	545	100.0%	250	100.0%
2026	2,000	649	100.0%	320	100.0%

Outlook method: see the top of the Montana points explainer and our forecast method. It is a trend line, not a promise.

Notes from TagCanyon

In 2026, 649 residents listed this drawing first for a quota of 2,000, about 0.3 resident applicants per license.
Licenses still went to second or third choices in 2026, so the drawing did not fill on first choice.
FWP reported 802 left as surplus after the 2026 drawing.
Residents: at 0 bonus points 100% drew; at 3 points (the highest level with at least 5 applicants) 100% drew.
Nonresidents: at 0 bonus points 100% drew; at 1 points (the highest level with at least 5 applicants) 100% drew.

Deadline

Elk B, deer B, antelope and antelope B licenses: FWP's 2026 window ran Mar 1 to Jun 1, 2026 (11:45 p.m. Mountain). FWP has not posted 2027 dates yet; the June 1 deadline has held in recent years. FWP application and drawing dates.

Source: Montana Fish, Wildlife & Parks (FWP), 2026 Drawing Statistics reports (MyFWP drawing statistics, FWP application and drawing dates). Tables, outlooks and text are TagCanyon's own; FWP does not warrant or endorse them. Not affiliated with FWP. Retrieved Oct 17, 2026.