Wyoming Pronghorn Area 51 Type 1 Draw Odds

Pronghorn hunt area 051, type 1 (any antelope, as WGFD labels it). Jump to resident odds or nonresident odds.

Fact	Value
Hunt	Pronghorn, Area 51 Type 1: any antelope
2026 resident quota / first-choice applicants	90 / 198
2026 resident simple odds (random draw)	45.5%
2026 nonresident regular quota: preference pool / random pool	12 / 3
2026 nonresident special quota: preference pool / random pool	8 / 2
2026 nonresident regular: preference cut	7 pts (33% drew at that level)
2026 nonresident special: preference cut	3 pts (80% drew at that level)

Resident odds (2026 draw)

Wyoming residents draw pronghorn licenses by random draw; preference points do not apply to residents for this species, so every resident applicant has the same chance. Simple odds are quota divided by first-choice applicants (second and third choices only pick up what is left).

Draw year	Resident quota	1st-choice applicants	Simple odds
2023	72	150	48.0%
2024	72	171	42.1%
2025	72	196	36.7%
2026	90	198	45.5%

Resident outlook for 2027

Resident odds moved -0.8 percentage points a year on average from 2023 to 2026. If quota and demand follow that line, 2027 odds land near 45%.

Nonresident odds by preference point (2026 draw)

For nonresidents WGFD sets aside most licenses for a preference-point draw and the rest for a random draw that also takes everyone who missed in the point draw. The first odds column is WGFD's published first-choice success rate at each level; the second adds our simple random-draw estimate (random quota over first-choice random applicants). Rows marked < are party applications whose averaged points fall between two levels.

Regular license

Your points	1st-choice applicants	Preference draw odds (WGFD)	With random draw added (est.)
9	2	100.0%	100.0%
8	2	100.0%	100.0%
< 8	3	100.0%	100.0%
7	15	33.3%	35.7%
< 7	75	0.0%	3.5%

Forecast for 2027: About 8 preference points is where the draw is likely to cut off next year, so applicants at 9 or more are likely to draw on first choice. Point creep has averaged +0.49 points a year (2023 to 2026). Confidence: medium.

Special license (higher fee, separate quota)

Your points	1st-choice applicants	Preference draw odds (WGFD)	With random draw added (est.)
< 6	2	100.0%	100.0%
4	2	100.0%	100.0%
3	5	80.0%	83.3%
< 3	11	0.0%	16.7%

Forecast for 2027: About 3 preference points is where the draw is likely to cut off next year, so applicants at 4 or more are likely to draw on first choice. Point creep has averaged +0.07 points a year (2023 to 2026). Confidence: medium.

History

Draw year	NR regular cut	NR special cut	NR random odds (regular)
2023	6 pts (80% drew at that level)	3 pts (all drew at that level)	6.5%
2024	< 7 pts (50% drew at that level)	2 pts (33% drew at that level)	3.7%
2025	6 pts (all drew at that level)	3 pts (all drew at that level)	4.5%
2026	7 pts (33% drew at that level)	3 pts (80% drew at that level)	3.5%

Forecast method: how we forecast point creep. It is a trend line, not a promise.

Notes from TagCanyon

In 2026, 198 residents listed this hunt first for 90 resident licenses. The nonresident regular points-to-draw index went from 6.2 in 2023 to 7.7 in 2026.

Deadline

Applications open Jan 2 and close Jun 1 on WGFD's current dates table (results in mid-June). Confirm the 2027 dates on WGFD's page. WGFD application dates.

Source: Wyoming Game and Fish Department (WGFD), 2026 Demand Reports (WGFD draw results and odds). Tables, forecasts and text are TagCanyon's own. Not affiliated with WGFD. Retrieved Oct 17, 2026.