Wyoming Elk Area 54 Type 3 Draw Odds

Elk hunt area 054, type 3 (any elk, as WGFD labels it). Jump to resident odds or nonresident odds.

Fact	Value
Hunt	Elk, Area 54 Type 3: any elk
2026 resident quota / first-choice applicants	10 / 131
2026 resident simple odds (random draw)	7.6%
2026 nonresident regular quota: preference pool / random pool	0 / 0
2026 nonresident special quota: preference pool / random pool	1 / 0
2026 nonresident regular: preference cut	no preference quota
2026 nonresident special: preference cut	11 pts (all drew at that level)

Resident odds (2026 draw)

Wyoming residents draw elk licenses by random draw; preference points do not apply to residents for this species, so every resident applicant has the same chance. Simple odds are quota divided by first-choice applicants (second and third choices only pick up what is left).

Draw year	Resident quota	1st-choice applicants	Simple odds
2024	2	78	2.6%
2025	16	103	15.5%
2026	10	131	7.6%

Resident outlook for 2027

Resident odds moved +2.5 percentage points a year on average from 2024 to 2026. If quota and demand follow that line, 2027 odds land near 10%.

Nonresident odds by preference point (2026 draw)

For nonresidents WGFD sets aside most licenses for a preference-point draw and the rest for a random draw that also takes everyone who missed in the point draw. The first odds column is WGFD's published first-choice success rate at each level; the second adds our simple random-draw estimate (random quota over first-choice random applicants). Rows marked < are party applications whose averaged points fall between two levels.

Regular license

Your points	1st-choice applicants	Preference draw odds (WGFD)	With random draw added (est.)
18	1	0.0%	0.0%
< 18	19	0.0%	0.0%

Forecast for 2027: About 17 preference points is where the draw is likely to cut off next year, so applicants at 18 or more are likely to draw on first choice. Point creep has averaged +2.00 points a year (2024 to 2025). Confidence: low.

Special license (higher fee, separate quota)

Your points	1st-choice applicants	Preference draw odds (WGFD)	With random draw added (est.)
11	1	100.0%	100.0%
< 11	1	0.0%	0.0%

Forecast for 2027: About 16 preference points is where the draw is likely to cut off next year, so applicants at 17 or more are likely to draw on first choice. Point creep has averaged +5.50 points a year (2024 to 2026). Confidence: low.

History

Draw year	NR regular cut	NR special cut	NR random odds (regular)
2024	13 pts (all drew at that level)	every applicant drew	0.0%
2025	15 pts (all drew at that level)	17 pts (all drew at that level)	0.0%
2026	no preference quota	11 pts (all drew at that level)	0.0%

Forecast method: how we forecast point creep. It is a trend line, not a promise.

Notes from TagCanyon

In 2026, 131 residents listed this hunt first for 10 resident licenses. The nonresident regular points-to-draw index went from 13.0 in 2024 to 15.0 in 2025. Nonresident elk applications close months before deer and antelope, so this hunt's reminder goes out in January.

Deadline

Nonresident elk: Jan 2 to Feb 2 on WGFD's current dates table (results in May). Confirm the 2027 close date on WGFD's page. Resident elk: Jan 2 to Jun 1. WGFD application dates.

Source: Wyoming Game and Fish Department (WGFD), 2026 Demand Reports (WGFD draw results and odds). Tables, forecasts and text are TagCanyon's own. Not affiliated with WGFD. Retrieved Oct 17, 2026.