Wyoming Deer Area 78 Type 1 Draw Odds

Deer hunt area 078, type 1 (antlered mule deer …, as WGFD labels it). Jump to resident odds or nonresident odds.

Fact	Value
Hunt	Deer, Area 78 Type 1: antlered mule deer …
2026 resident quota / first-choice applicants	188 / 1403
2026 resident simple odds (random draw)	13.4%
2026 nonresident regular quota: preference pool / random pool	21 / 7
2026 nonresident special quota: preference pool / random pool	15 / 4
2026 nonresident regular: preference cut	9 pts (88% drew at that level)
2026 nonresident special: preference cut	5 pts (50% drew at that level)

Resident odds (2026 draw)

Wyoming residents draw deer licenses by random draw; preference points do not apply to residents for this species, so every resident applicant has the same chance. Simple odds are quota divided by first-choice applicants (second and third choices only pick up what is left).

Draw year	Resident quota	1st-choice applicants	Simple odds
2023	242	976	24.8%
2024	191	1,031	18.5%
2025	193	1,091	17.7%
2026	188	1,403	13.4%

Resident outlook for 2027

Resident odds moved -3.8 percentage points a year on average from 2023 to 2026. If quota and demand follow that line, 2027 odds land near 10%.

Nonresident odds by preference point (2026 draw)

For nonresidents WGFD sets aside most licenses for a preference-point draw and the rest for a random draw that also takes everyone who missed in the point draw. The first odds column is WGFD's published first-choice success rate at each level; the second adds our simple random-draw estimate (random quota over first-choice random applicants). Rows marked < are party applications whose averaged points fall between two levels.

Regular license

Your points	1st-choice applicants	Preference draw odds (WGFD)	With random draw added (est.)
< 13	2	100.0%	100.0%
12	1	100.0%	100.0%
11	4	100.0%	100.0%
10	4	100.0%	100.0%
< 10	3	100.0%	100.0%
9	8	87.5%	88.1%
< 9	140	0.0%	5.0%

Forecast for 2027: About 9 preference points is where the draw is likely to cut off next year, so applicants at 10 or more are likely to draw on first choice. Point creep has averaged +0.71 points a year (2023 to 2026). Confidence: medium.

Special license (higher fee, separate quota)

Your points	1st-choice applicants	Preference draw odds (WGFD)	With random draw added (est.)
10	1	100.0%	100.0%
8	3	100.0%	100.0%
7	1	100.0%	100.0%
6	4	100.0%	100.0%
< 6	5	100.0%	100.0%
5	2	50.0%	53.6%
< 5	54	0.0%	7.3%

Forecast for 2027: About 5 preference points is where the draw is likely to cut off next year, so applicants at 6 or more are likely to draw on first choice. Point creep has averaged -0.02 points a year (2023 to 2026). Confidence: low.

History

Draw year	NR regular cut	NR special cut	NR random odds (regular)
2023	7 pts (all drew at that level)	5 pts (43% drew at that level)	6.5%
2024	8 pts (40% drew at that level)	< 1 pts (50% drew at that level)	5.9%
2025	7 pts (all drew at that level)	3 pts (all drew at that level)	7.4%
2026	9 pts (88% drew at that level)	5 pts (50% drew at that level)	5.0%

Forecast method: how we forecast point creep. It is a trend line, not a promise.

Notes from TagCanyon

In 2026, 1,403 residents listed this hunt first for 188 resident licenses. The nonresident regular points-to-draw index went from 7.0 in 2023 to 9.1 in 2026.

Deadline

Applications open Jan 2 and close Jun 1 on WGFD's current dates table (results in mid-June). Confirm the 2027 dates on WGFD's page. WGFD application dates.

Source: Wyoming Game and Fish Department (WGFD), 2026 Demand Reports (WGFD draw results and odds). Tables, forecasts and text are TagCanyon's own. Not affiliated with WGFD. Retrieved Oct 17, 2026.