799-21 Elk Permit Draw Odds, Montana
Elk permit, district 799-21 (first and only archery only), from FWP's 2023 to 2026 drawing statistics. Jump to resident odds or nonresident odds.
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| Fact | Value |
|---|---|
| Drawing | Elk permit, district 799-21 (first and only archery only) |
| 2026 total quota | 1,000 |
| 2026 nonresident cap (FWP's NR quota column) | 100 |
| 2026 landowner preference cap: resident / nonresident | 150 / 100 |
| 2026 first-choice applicants: resident / nonresident | 1,569 / 562 |
| 2026 drawn on first choice: resident / nonresident | 875 / 79 |
| 2026 first-choice odds: resident / nonresident | 55.8% / 14.1% |
| 2026 total successful (all choices and pools) | 1,000 |
Resident odds by bonus point (2026 drawing)
Share of first-choice resident applicants at each bonus-point level who drew, from FWP's 2026 bonus point report. Each applicant gets one chance plus their points squared, so the draw favors high point holders without a hard cutoff. How Montana bonus points work.
| Bonus points | Chances in drawing | 1st-choice applicants | Drawn | Odds at this level |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 188 | 42 | 22.3% |
| 1 | 2 | 869 | 411 | 47.3% |
| 2 | 5 | 339 | 260 | 76.7% |
| 3 | 10 | 93 | 84 | 90.3% |
| 4 | 17 | 40 | 38 | 95.0% |
| 5 | 26 | 16 | 16 | 100.0% |
| 6 | 37 | 14 | 14 | 100.0% |
| 7 | 50 | 3 | 3 | 100.0% |
| 8 | 65 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
| 9 | 82 | 4 | 4 | 100.0% |
| 11 | 122 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
| 12 | 145 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
Resident outlook for 2027
If first-choice demand keeps its 2023 to 2026 trend (+93 applicants a year), about 1,662 residents would apply in 2027; with the same number of first-choice licenses, overall first-choice odds would be about 53%. Average bonus points among first-choice applicants are trending to about 1.5 (+0.12 a year), a measure of point creep in a weighted draw. Confidence: medium.
Landowner preference (residents, 2026): 26 first-choice applicants, 26 drawn.
Nonresident odds by bonus point (2026 drawing)
Share of first-choice nonresident applicants at each bonus-point level who drew, from FWP's 2026 bonus point report. Each applicant gets one chance plus their points squared, so the draw favors high point holders without a hard cutoff. How Montana bonus points work.
| Bonus points | Chances in drawing | 1st-choice applicants | Drawn | Odds at this level |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 14 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 1 | 2 | 52 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 2 | 5 | 81 | 3 | 3.7% |
| 3 | 10 | 64 | 7 | 10.9% |
| 4 | 17 | 85 | 10 | 11.8% |
| 5 | 26 | 60 | 5 | 8.3% |
| 6 | 37 | 79 | 15 | 19.0% |
| 7 | 50 | 50 | 11 | 22.0% |
| 8 | 65 | 37 | 11 | 29.7% |
| 9 | 82 | 27 | 14 | 51.9% |
| 10 | 101 | 9 | 1 | 11.1% |
| 11 | 122 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 14 | 197 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 16 | 257 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
| 20 | 401 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
Nonresident outlook for 2027
If first-choice demand keeps its 2023 to 2026 trend (+43 applicants a year), about 605 nonresidents would apply in 2027; with the same number of first-choice licenses, overall first-choice odds would be about 13%. Average bonus points among first-choice applicants are trending to about 5.1 (+0.56 a year), a measure of point creep in a weighted draw. Confidence: medium.
Landowner preference (nonresidents, 2026): 20 first-choice applicants, 20 drawn.
First-choice odds by year
First-choice draws over first-choice applicants in the regular drawing (landowner preference excluded).
| Draw year | Quota | Res applicants | Res odds | NR applicants | NR odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 1,000 | 1,289 | 69.3% | 433 | 22.2% |
| 2024 | 1,000 | 1,311 | 67.2% | 464 | 20.0% |
| 2025 | 1,000 | 1,351 | 64.7% | 535 | 15.3% |
| 2026 | 1,000 | 1,569 | 55.8% | 562 | 14.1% |
Outlook method: see the top of the Montana points explainer and our forecast method. It is a trend line, not a promise.
Notes from TagCanyon
- In 2026, 1,569 residents listed this drawing first for a quota of 1,000, about 1.6 resident applicants per license.
- FWP lists this as a first-choice-only drawing: applying for it rules out second and third choices for that species.
- Residents: at 0 bonus points 22% drew; at 6 points (the highest level with at least 5 applicants) 100% drew.
- Nonresidents: at 0 bonus points 0% drew; at 10 points (the highest level with at least 5 applicants) 11% drew.
Deadline
Deer and elk permits: FWP's 2026 window ran Mar 1 to Apr 1, 2026 (11:45 p.m. Mountain), with results in mid-April. FWP has not posted 2027 dates yet; the April 1 deadline has held in recent years. FWP application and drawing dates.
Source: Montana Fish, Wildlife & Parks (FWP), 2026 Drawing Statistics reports (MyFWP drawing statistics, FWP application and drawing dates). Tables, outlooks and text are TagCanyon's own; FWP does not warrant or endorse them. Not affiliated with FWP. Retrieved Oct 17, 2026.
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