621-01 Elk B License Draw Odds, Montana

Elk b license, district 621-01, from FWP's 2023 to 2026 drawing statistics. Jump to resident odds or nonresident odds.

Fact	Value
Drawing	Elk b license, district 621-01
2026 total quota	100
2026 nonresident cap (FWP's NR quota column)	10
2026 landowner preference cap: resident / nonresident	15 / 10
2026 first-choice applicants: resident / nonresident	711 / 63
2026 drawn on first choice: resident / nonresident	87 / 10
2026 first-choice odds: resident / nonresident	12.2% / 15.9%
2026 total successful (all choices and pools)	100

Resident odds by bonus point (2026 drawing)

Share of first-choice resident applicants at each bonus-point level who drew, from FWP's 2026 bonus point report. Each applicant gets one chance plus their points squared, so the draw favors high point holders without a hard cutoff. How Montana bonus points work.

Bonus points	Chances in drawing	1st-choice applicants	Drawn	Odds at this level
0	1	136	2	1.5%
1	2	148	3	2.0%
2	5	131	10	7.6%
3	10	142	28	19.7%
4	17	96	22	22.9%
5	26	43	15	34.9%
6	37	9	3	33.3%
7	50	4	2	50.0%
8	65	1	1	100.0%
12	145	1	1	100.0%

Resident outlook for 2027

If first-choice demand keeps its 2023 to 2026 trend (-27 applicants a year), about 684 residents would apply in 2027; with the same number of first-choice licenses, overall first-choice odds would be about 13%. Average bonus points among first-choice applicants are trending to about 2.4 (+0.23 a year), a measure of point creep in a weighted draw. Confidence: medium.

Landowner preference (residents, 2026): 3 first-choice applicants, 3 drawn.

Nonresident odds by bonus point (2026 drawing)

Share of first-choice nonresident applicants at each bonus-point level who drew, from FWP's 2026 bonus point report. Each applicant gets one chance plus their points squared, so the draw favors high point holders without a hard cutoff. How Montana bonus points work.

Bonus points	Chances in drawing	1st-choice applicants	Drawn	Odds at this level
0	1	11	0	0.0%
1	2	18	1	5.6%
2	5	7	1	14.3%
3	10	14	1	7.1%
4	17	4	1	25.0%
5	26	3	2	66.7%
6	37	4	3	75.0%
7	50	1	0	0.0%
9	82	1	1	100.0%

Nonresident outlook for 2027

If first-choice demand keeps its 2023 to 2026 trend (-10 applicants a year), about 53 nonresidents would apply in 2027; with the same number of first-choice licenses, overall first-choice odds would be about 19%. Average bonus points among first-choice applicants are trending to about 2.6 (+0.25 a year), a measure of point creep in a weighted draw. Confidence: medium.

First-choice odds by year

First-choice draws over first-choice applicants in the regular drawing (landowner preference excluded).

Draw year	Quota	Res applicants	Res odds	NR applicants	NR odds
2023	200	793	22.6%	92	18.5%
2024	100	761	11.6%	82	11.0%
2025	100	755	11.4%	79	12.7%
2026	100	711	12.2%	63	15.9%

Outlook method: see the top of the Montana points explainer and our forecast method. It is a trend line, not a promise.

Notes from TagCanyon

In 2026, 711 residents listed this drawing first for a quota of 100, about 7.1 resident applicants per license.
Residents: at 0 bonus points 1% drew; at 6 points (the highest level with at least 5 applicants) 33% drew.
Nonresidents: at 0 bonus points 0% drew; at 3 points (the highest level with at least 5 applicants) 7% drew.

Deadline

Elk B, deer B, antelope and antelope B licenses: FWP's 2026 window ran Mar 1 to Jun 1, 2026 (11:45 p.m. Mountain). FWP has not posted 2027 dates yet; the June 1 deadline has held in recent years. FWP application and drawing dates.

Source: Montana Fish, Wildlife & Parks (FWP), 2026 Drawing Statistics reports (MyFWP drawing statistics, FWP application and drawing dates). Tables, outlooks and text are TagCanyon's own; FWP does not warrant or endorse them. Not affiliated with FWP. Retrieved Oct 17, 2026.