620-20 Elk Permit Draw Odds, Montana

Elk permit, district 620-20, from FWP's 2023 to 2026 drawing statistics. Jump to resident odds or nonresident odds.

Fact	Value
Drawing	Elk permit, district 620-20
2026 total quota	70
2026 nonresident cap (FWP's NR quota column)	7
2026 landowner preference cap: resident / nonresident	11 / 7
2026 first-choice applicants: resident / nonresident	705 / 51
2026 drawn on first choice: resident / nonresident	55 / 4
2026 first-choice odds: resident / nonresident	7.8% / 7.8%
2026 total successful (all choices and pools)	70

Resident odds by bonus point (2026 drawing)

Share of first-choice resident applicants at each bonus-point level who drew, from FWP's 2026 bonus point report. Each applicant gets one chance plus their points squared, so the draw favors high point holders without a hard cutoff. How Montana bonus points work.

Bonus points	Chances in drawing	1st-choice applicants	Drawn	Odds at this level
0	1	83	0	0.0%
1	2	121	1	0.8%
2	5	101	1	1.0%
3	10	89	5	5.6%
4	17	65	4	6.2%
5	26	77	10	13.0%
6	37	43	5	11.6%
7	50	42	7	16.7%
8	65	31	8	25.8%
9	82	14	3	21.4%
10	101	10	4	40.0%
11	122	8	3	37.5%
12	145	5	0	0.0%
13	170	4	3	75.0%
14	197	2	0	0.0%
15	226	2	0	0.0%
16	257	1	1	100.0%
17	290	1	0	0.0%

Resident outlook for 2027

If first-choice demand keeps its 2023 to 2026 trend (-85 applicants a year), about 620 residents would apply in 2027; with the same number of first-choice licenses, overall first-choice odds would be about 9%. Average bonus points among first-choice applicants are trending to about 3.8 (+0.17 a year), a measure of point creep in a weighted draw. Confidence: medium.

Landowner preference (residents, 2026): 17 first-choice applicants, 11 drawn.

Nonresident odds by bonus point (2026 drawing)

Share of first-choice nonresident applicants at each bonus-point level who drew, from FWP's 2026 bonus point report. Each applicant gets one chance plus their points squared, so the draw favors high point holders without a hard cutoff. How Montana bonus points work.

Bonus points	Chances in drawing	1st-choice applicants	Drawn	Odds at this level
0	1	3	0	0.0%
1	2	15	0	0.0%
2	5	6	0	0.0%
3	10	3	1	33.3%
4	17	7	0	0.0%
5	26	4	0	0.0%
6	37	6	0	0.0%
7	50	2	0	0.0%
8	65	1	0	0.0%
9	82	1	1	100.0%
13	170	1	0	0.0%
17	290	1	1	100.0%
18	325	1	1	100.0%

Nonresident outlook for 2027

If first-choice demand keeps its 2023 to 2026 trend (-14 applicants a year), about 37 nonresidents would apply in 2027; with the same number of first-choice licenses, overall first-choice odds would be about 11%. Average bonus points among first-choice applicants are trending to about 4.2 (+0.33 a year), a measure of point creep in a weighted draw. Confidence: low.

First-choice odds by year

First-choice draws over first-choice applicants in the regular drawing (landowner preference excluded).

Draw year	Quota	Res applicants	Res odds	NR applicants	NR odds
2023	70	959	5.8%	93	4.3%
2024	70	881	6.2%	59	6.8%
2025	70	742	7.4%	69	5.8%
2026	70	705	7.8%	51	7.8%

Outlook method: see the top of the Montana points explainer and our forecast method. It is a trend line, not a promise.

Notes from TagCanyon

In 2026, 705 residents listed this drawing first for a quota of 70, about 10.1 resident applicants per license.
Residents: at 0 bonus points 0% drew; at 12 points (the highest level with at least 5 applicants) 0% drew.
Nonresidents: at 1 bonus points 0% drew; at 6 points (the highest level with at least 5 applicants) 0% drew.

Deadline

Deer and elk permits: FWP's 2026 window ran Mar 1 to Apr 1, 2026 (11:45 p.m. Mountain), with results in mid-April. FWP has not posted 2027 dates yet; the April 1 deadline has held in recent years. FWP application and drawing dates.

Source: Montana Fish, Wildlife & Parks (FWP), 2026 Drawing Statistics reports (MyFWP drawing statistics, FWP application and drawing dates). Tables, outlooks and text are TagCanyon's own; FWP does not warrant or endorse them. Not affiliated with FWP. Retrieved Oct 17, 2026.