595-21 Elk Permit Draw Odds, Montana

Elk permit, district 595-21 (first and only archery only), from FWP's 2023 to 2026 drawing statistics. Jump to resident odds or nonresident odds.

Fact	Value
Drawing	Elk permit, district 595-21 (first and only archery only)
2026 total quota	1,800
2026 nonresident cap (FWP's NR quota column)	180
2026 landowner preference cap: resident / nonresident	270 / 180
2026 first-choice applicants: resident / nonresident	974 / 274
2026 drawn on first choice: resident / nonresident	974 / 274
2026 first-choice odds: resident / nonresident	100.0% / 100.0%
2026 total successful (all choices and pools)	1,259

Resident odds by bonus point (2026 drawing)

Share of first-choice resident applicants at each bonus-point level who drew, from FWP's 2026 bonus point report. Each applicant gets one chance plus their points squared, so the draw favors high point holders without a hard cutoff. How Montana bonus points work.

Bonus points	Chances in drawing	1st-choice applicants	Drawn	Odds at this level
0	1	401	401	100.0%
1	2	486	486	100.0%
2	5	39	39	100.0%
3	10	21	21	100.0%
4	17	15	15	100.0%
5	26	10	10	100.0%
6	37	1	1	100.0%
8	65	1	1	100.0%

Resident outlook for 2027

If first-choice demand keeps its 2023 to 2026 trend (+14 applicants a year), about 988 residents would apply in 2027; with the same number of first-choice licenses, overall first-choice odds would be about 99%. Average bonus points among first-choice applicants are trending to about 0.7 (-0.04 a year), a measure of point creep in a weighted draw. Confidence: medium.

Landowner preference (residents, 2026): 6 first-choice applicants, 6 drawn.

Nonresident odds by bonus point (2026 drawing)

Share of first-choice nonresident applicants at each bonus-point level who drew, from FWP's 2026 bonus point report. Each applicant gets one chance plus their points squared, so the draw favors high point holders without a hard cutoff. How Montana bonus points work.

Bonus points	Chances in drawing	1st-choice applicants	Drawn	Odds at this level
0	1	77	77	100.0%
1	2	120	120	100.0%
2	5	48	48	100.0%
3	10	16	16	100.0%
4	17	6	6	100.0%
5	26	3	3	100.0%
6	37	2	2	100.0%
7	50	2	2	100.0%

Nonresident outlook for 2027

If first-choice demand keeps its 2023 to 2026 trend (+18 applicants a year), about 292 nonresidents would apply in 2027; with the same number of first-choice licenses, overall first-choice odds would be about 94%. Average bonus points among first-choice applicants are trending to about 1.0 (-0.15 a year), a measure of point creep in a weighted draw. Confidence: medium.

Landowner preference (nonresidents, 2026): 5 first-choice applicants, 5 drawn.

First-choice odds by year

First-choice draws over first-choice applicants in the regular drawing (landowner preference excluded).

Draw year	Quota	Res applicants	Res odds	NR applicants	NR odds
2023	1,800	931	100.0%	221	100.0%
2024	1,800	854	100.0%	263	100.0%
2025	1,800	908	100.0%	260	100.0%
2026	1,800	974	100.0%	274	100.0%

Outlook method: see the top of the Montana points explainer and our forecast method. It is a trend line, not a promise.

Notes from TagCanyon

In 2026, 974 residents listed this drawing first for a quota of 1,800, about 0.5 resident applicants per license.
FWP lists this as a first-choice-only drawing: applying for it rules out second and third choices for that species.
Residents: at 0 bonus points 100% drew; at 5 points (the highest level with at least 5 applicants) 100% drew.
Nonresidents: at 0 bonus points 100% drew; at 4 points (the highest level with at least 5 applicants) 100% drew.

Deadline

Deer and elk permits: FWP's 2026 window ran Mar 1 to Apr 1, 2026 (11:45 p.m. Mountain), with results in mid-April. FWP has not posted 2027 dates yet; the April 1 deadline has held in recent years. FWP application and drawing dates.

Source: Montana Fish, Wildlife & Parks (FWP), 2026 Drawing Statistics reports (MyFWP drawing statistics, FWP application and drawing dates). Tables, outlooks and text are TagCanyon's own; FWP does not warrant or endorse them. Not affiliated with FWP. Retrieved Oct 17, 2026.