590-20 Elk Permit Draw Odds, Montana

Elk permit, district 590-20, from FWP's 2023 to 2026 drawing statistics. Jump to resident odds or nonresident odds.

Fact	Value
Drawing	Elk permit, district 590-20
2026 total quota	380
2026 nonresident cap (FWP's NR quota column)	38
2026 landowner preference cap: resident / nonresident	57 / 38
2026 first-choice applicants: resident / nonresident	1,398 / 120
2026 drawn on first choice: resident / nonresident	300 / 23
2026 first-choice odds: resident / nonresident	21.5% / 19.2%
2026 total successful (all choices and pools)	380

Resident odds by bonus point (2026 drawing)

Share of first-choice resident applicants at each bonus-point level who drew, from FWP's 2026 bonus point report. Each applicant gets one chance plus their points squared, so the draw favors high point holders without a hard cutoff. How Montana bonus points work.

Bonus points	Chances in drawing	1st-choice applicants	Drawn	Odds at this level
0	1	273	7	2.6%
1	2	392	38	9.7%
2	5	274	54	19.7%
3	10	212	79	37.3%
4	17	121	54	44.6%
5	26	51	30	58.8%
6	37	21	15	71.4%
7	50	8	6	75.0%
8	65	8	8	100.0%
9	82	5	5	100.0%
11	122	2	2	100.0%
13	170	2	1	50.0%
15	226	1	1	100.0%

Resident outlook for 2027

If first-choice demand keeps its 2023 to 2026 trend (+66 applicants a year), about 1,464 residents would apply in 2027; with the same number of first-choice licenses, overall first-choice odds would be about 20%. Average bonus points among first-choice applicants are trending to about 2.0 (+0.10 a year), a measure of point creep in a weighted draw. Confidence: medium.

Landowner preference (residents, 2026): 70 first-choice applicants, 42 drawn.

Nonresident odds by bonus point (2026 drawing)

Share of first-choice nonresident applicants at each bonus-point level who drew, from FWP's 2026 bonus point report. Each applicant gets one chance plus their points squared, so the draw favors high point holders without a hard cutoff. How Montana bonus points work.

Bonus points	Chances in drawing	1st-choice applicants	Drawn	Odds at this level
0	1	8	1	12.5%
1	2	28	2	7.1%
2	5	24	2	8.3%
3	10	11	1	9.1%
4	17	16	4	25.0%
5	26	3	1	33.3%
6	37	6	3	50.0%
7	50	6	2	33.3%
8	65	7	4	57.1%
9	82	4	2	50.0%
10	101	1	1	100.0%

Nonresident outlook for 2027

If first-choice demand keeps its 2023 to 2026 trend (-2 applicants a year), about 118 nonresidents would apply in 2027; with the same number of first-choice licenses, overall first-choice odds would be about 19%. Average bonus points among first-choice applicants are trending to about 3.3 (+0.09 a year), a measure of point creep in a weighted draw. Confidence: medium.

Landowner preference (nonresidents, 2026): 21 first-choice applicants, 15 drawn.

First-choice odds by year

First-choice draws over first-choice applicants in the regular drawing (landowner preference excluded).

Draw year	Quota	Res applicants	Res odds	NR applicants	NR odds
2023	380	1,199	24.7%	125	21.6%
2024	380	1,254	23.9%	151	15.2%
2025	380	1,228	24.6%	133	15.8%
2026	380	1,398	21.5%	120	19.2%

Outlook method: see the top of the Montana points explainer and our forecast method. It is a trend line, not a promise.

Notes from TagCanyon

In 2026, 1,398 residents listed this drawing first for a quota of 380, about 3.7 resident applicants per license.
Residents: at 0 bonus points 3% drew; at 9 points (the highest level with at least 5 applicants) 100% drew.
Nonresidents: at 0 bonus points 12% drew; at 8 points (the highest level with at least 5 applicants) 57% drew.

Deadline

Deer and elk permits: FWP's 2026 window ran Mar 1 to Apr 1, 2026 (11:45 p.m. Mountain), with results in mid-April. FWP has not posted 2027 dates yet; the April 1 deadline has held in recent years. FWP application and drawing dates.

Source: Montana Fish, Wildlife & Parks (FWP), 2026 Drawing Statistics reports (MyFWP drawing statistics, FWP application and drawing dates). Tables, outlooks and text are TagCanyon's own; FWP does not warrant or endorse them. Not affiliated with FWP. Retrieved Oct 17, 2026.