555-20 Elk Permit Draw Odds, Montana

Elk permit, district 555-20, from FWP's 2024 to 2026 drawing statistics. Jump to resident odds or nonresident odds.

Fact	Value
Drawing	Elk permit, district 555-20
2026 total quota	25
2026 nonresident cap (FWP's NR quota column)	2
2026 landowner preference cap: resident / nonresident	4 / 2
2026 first-choice applicants: resident / nonresident	425 / 25
2026 drawn on first choice: resident / nonresident	21 / 2
2026 first-choice odds: resident / nonresident	4.9% / 8.0%
2026 total successful (all choices and pools)	25

Resident odds by bonus point (2026 drawing)

Share of first-choice resident applicants at each bonus-point level who drew, from FWP's 2026 bonus point report. Each applicant gets one chance plus their points squared, so the draw favors high point holders without a hard cutoff. How Montana bonus points work.

Bonus points	Chances in drawing	1st-choice applicants	Drawn	Odds at this level
0	1	48	0	0.0%
1	2	81	0	0.0%
2	5	73	3	4.1%
3	10	63	1	1.6%
4	17	38	3	7.9%
5	26	43	3	7.0%
6	37	32	2	6.2%
7	50	15	5	33.3%
8	65	11	2	18.2%
9	82	16	2	12.5%
11	122	2	0	0.0%
12	145	1	0	0.0%
13	170	1	0	0.0%
14	197	1	0	0.0%

Resident outlook for 2027

If first-choice demand keeps its 2024 to 2026 trend (+34 applicants a year), about 459 residents would apply in 2027; with the same number of first-choice licenses, overall first-choice odds would be about 5%. Average bonus points among first-choice applicants are trending to about 3.5 (+0.29 a year), a measure of point creep in a weighted draw. Confidence: medium.

Landowner preference (residents, 2026): 2 first-choice applicants, 2 drawn.

Nonresident odds by bonus point (2026 drawing)

Share of first-choice nonresident applicants at each bonus-point level who drew, from FWP's 2026 bonus point report. Each applicant gets one chance plus their points squared, so the draw favors high point holders without a hard cutoff. How Montana bonus points work.

Bonus points	Chances in drawing	1st-choice applicants	Drawn	Odds at this level
0	1	2	0	0.0%
1	2	4	0	0.0%
2	5	4	0	0.0%
3	10	4	0	0.0%
4	17	1	0	0.0%
5	26	3	0	0.0%
6	37	2	0	0.0%
7	50	2	0	0.0%
8	65	1	1	100.0%
10	101	2	1	50.0%

Nonresident outlook for 2027

If first-choice demand keeps its 2024 to 2026 trend (+4 applicants a year), about 30 nonresidents would apply in 2027; with the same number of first-choice licenses, overall first-choice odds would be about 7%. Average bonus points among first-choice applicants are trending to about 4.0 (+0.16 a year), a measure of point creep in a weighted draw. Confidence: low.

First-choice odds by year

First-choice draws over first-choice applicants in the regular drawing (landowner preference excluded).

Draw year	Quota	Res applicants	Res odds	NR applicants	NR odds
2024	25	357	5.9%	16	12.5%
2025	25	367	5.7%	29	3.4%
2026	25	425	4.9%	25	8.0%

Outlook method: see the top of the Montana points explainer and our forecast method. It is a trend line, not a promise.

Notes from TagCanyon

In 2026, 425 residents listed this drawing first for a quota of 25, about 17.0 resident applicants per license.
Residents: at 0 bonus points 0% drew; at 9 points (the highest level with at least 5 applicants) 12% drew.

Deadline

Deer and elk permits: FWP's 2026 window ran Mar 1 to Apr 1, 2026 (11:45 p.m. Mountain), with results in mid-April. FWP has not posted 2027 dates yet; the April 1 deadline has held in recent years. FWP application and drawing dates.

Source: Montana Fish, Wildlife & Parks (FWP), 2026 Drawing Statistics reports (MyFWP drawing statistics, FWP application and drawing dates). Tables, outlooks and text are TagCanyon's own; FWP does not warrant or endorse them. Not affiliated with FWP. Retrieved Oct 17, 2026.