455-20 Elk Permit Draw Odds, Montana

Elk permit, district 455-20, from FWP's 2023 to 2026 drawing statistics. Jump to resident odds or nonresident odds.

Fact	Value
Drawing	Elk permit, district 455-20
2026 total quota	55
2026 nonresident cap (FWP's NR quota column)	5
2026 landowner preference cap: resident / nonresident	9 / 5
2026 first-choice applicants: resident / nonresident	829 / 44
2026 drawn on first choice: resident / nonresident	50 / 5
2026 first-choice odds: resident / nonresident	6.0% / 11.4%
2026 total successful (all choices and pools)	55

Resident odds by bonus point (2026 drawing)

Share of first-choice resident applicants at each bonus-point level who drew, from FWP's 2026 bonus point report. Each applicant gets one chance plus their points squared, so the draw favors high point holders without a hard cutoff. How Montana bonus points work.

Bonus points	Chances in drawing	1st-choice applicants	Drawn	Odds at this level
0	1	66	1	1.5%
1	2	136	1	0.7%
2	5	119	4	3.4%
3	10	113	5	4.4%
4	17	96	5	5.2%
5	26	71	3	4.2%
6	37	66	5	7.6%
7	50	43	5	11.6%
8	65	37	6	16.2%
9	82	28	4	14.3%
10	101	18	4	22.2%
11	122	14	5	35.7%
12	145	9	1	11.1%
13	170	6	0	0.0%
15	226	3	1	33.3%
16	257	4	0	0.0%

Resident outlook for 2027

If first-choice demand keeps its 2023 to 2026 trend (+5 applicants a year), about 834 residents would apply in 2027; with the same number of first-choice licenses, overall first-choice odds would be about 6%. Average bonus points among first-choice applicants are trending to about 4.1 (+0.12 a year), a measure of point creep in a weighted draw. Confidence: medium.

Nonresident odds by bonus point (2026 drawing)

Share of first-choice nonresident applicants at each bonus-point level who drew, from FWP's 2026 bonus point report. Each applicant gets one chance plus their points squared, so the draw favors high point holders without a hard cutoff. How Montana bonus points work.

Bonus points	Chances in drawing	1st-choice applicants	Drawn	Odds at this level
0	1	4	0	0.0%
1	2	6	0	0.0%
2	5	8	0	0.0%
3	10	4	1	25.0%
4	17	7	1	14.3%
5	26	1	0	0.0%
6	37	5	0	0.0%
7	50	4	2	50.0%
9	82	1	0	0.0%
11	122	1	0	0.0%
12	145	1	0	0.0%
13	170	1	0	0.0%
14	197	1	1	100.0%

Nonresident outlook for 2027

If first-choice demand keeps its 2023 to 2026 trend (+3 applicants a year), about 47 nonresidents would apply in 2027; with the same number of first-choice licenses, overall first-choice odds would be about 11%. Average bonus points among first-choice applicants are trending to about 4.6 (+0.39 a year), a measure of point creep in a weighted draw. Confidence: low.

First-choice odds by year

First-choice draws over first-choice applicants in the regular drawing (landowner preference excluded).

Draw year	Quota	Res applicants	Res odds	NR applicants	NR odds
2023	55	813	6.5%	35	5.7%
2024	55	849	6.5%	43	0.0%
2025	55	919	5.9%	33	3.0%
2026	55	829	6.0%	44	11.4%

Outlook method: see the top of the Montana points explainer and our forecast method. It is a trend line, not a promise.

Notes from TagCanyon

In 2026, 829 residents listed this drawing first for a quota of 55, about 15.1 resident applicants per license.
Residents: at 0 bonus points 2% drew; at 13 points (the highest level with at least 5 applicants) 0% drew.
Nonresidents: at 1 bonus points 0% drew; at 6 points (the highest level with at least 5 applicants) 0% drew.

Deadline

Deer and elk permits: FWP's 2026 window ran Mar 1 to Apr 1, 2026 (11:45 p.m. Mountain), with results in mid-April. FWP has not posted 2027 dates yet; the April 1 deadline has held in recent years. FWP application and drawing dates.

Source: Montana Fish, Wildlife & Parks (FWP), 2026 Drawing Statistics reports (MyFWP drawing statistics, FWP application and drawing dates). Tables, outlooks and text are TagCanyon's own; FWP does not warrant or endorse them. Not affiliated with FWP. Retrieved Oct 17, 2026.