448-00 Elk B License Draw Odds, Montana

Elk b license, district 448-00, from FWP's 2023 to 2026 drawing statistics. Jump to resident odds or nonresident odds.

Fact	Value
Drawing	Elk b license, district 448-00
2026 total quota	150
2026 nonresident cap (FWP's NR quota column)	15
2026 landowner preference cap: resident / nonresident	23 / 15
2026 first-choice applicants: resident / nonresident	571 / 46
2026 drawn on first choice: resident / nonresident	140 / 6
2026 first-choice odds: resident / nonresident	24.5% / 13.0%
2026 total successful (all choices and pools)	150

Resident odds by bonus point (2026 drawing)

Share of first-choice resident applicants at each bonus-point level who drew, from FWP's 2026 bonus point report. Each applicant gets one chance plus their points squared, so the draw favors high point holders without a hard cutoff. How Montana bonus points work.

Bonus points	Chances in drawing	1st-choice applicants	Drawn	Odds at this level
0	1	71	1	1.4%
1	2	199	18	9.0%
2	5	129	36	27.9%
3	10	90	36	40.0%
4	17	46	25	54.3%
5	26	25	16	64.0%
6	37	10	7	70.0%
7	50	1	1	100.0%

Resident outlook for 2027

If first-choice demand keeps its 2023 to 2026 trend (-8 applicants a year), about 563 residents would apply in 2027; with the same number of first-choice licenses, overall first-choice odds would be about 25%. Average bonus points among first-choice applicants are trending to about 2.0 (+0.11 a year), a measure of point creep in a weighted draw. Confidence: medium.

Landowner preference (residents, 2026): 4 first-choice applicants, 4 drawn.

Nonresident odds by bonus point (2026 drawing)

Share of first-choice nonresident applicants at each bonus-point level who drew, from FWP's 2026 bonus point report. Each applicant gets one chance plus their points squared, so the draw favors high point holders without a hard cutoff. How Montana bonus points work.

Bonus points	Chances in drawing	1st-choice applicants	Drawn	Odds at this level
0	1	18	1	5.6%
1	2	8	0	0.0%
2	5	10	1	10.0%
3	10	6	2	33.3%
4	17	2	1	50.0%
5	26	1	0	0.0%
7	50	1	1	100.0%

Nonresident outlook for 2027

If first-choice demand keeps its 2023 to 2026 trend (-10 applicants a year), about 36 nonresidents would apply in 2027; with the same number of first-choice licenses, overall first-choice odds would be about 17%. Average bonus points among first-choice applicants are trending to about 1.6 (+0.18 a year), a measure of point creep in a weighted draw. Confidence: medium.

First-choice odds by year

First-choice draws over first-choice applicants in the regular drawing (landowner preference excluded).

Draw year	Quota	Res applicants	Res odds	NR applicants	NR odds
2023	150	594	22.4%	75	20.0%
2024	150	599	23.0%	57	15.8%
2025	150	596	23.8%	57	7.0%
2026	150	571	24.5%	46	13.0%

Outlook method: see the top of the Montana points explainer and our forecast method. It is a trend line, not a promise.

Notes from TagCanyon

In 2026, 571 residents listed this drawing first for a quota of 150, about 3.8 resident applicants per license.
Residents: at 0 bonus points 1% drew; at 6 points (the highest level with at least 5 applicants) 70% drew.
Nonresidents: at 0 bonus points 6% drew; at 3 points (the highest level with at least 5 applicants) 33% drew.

Deadline

Elk B, deer B, antelope and antelope B licenses: FWP's 2026 window ran Mar 1 to Jun 1, 2026 (11:45 p.m. Mountain). FWP has not posted 2027 dates yet; the June 1 deadline has held in recent years. FWP application and drawing dates.

Source: Montana Fish, Wildlife & Parks (FWP), 2026 Drawing Statistics reports (MyFWP drawing statistics, FWP application and drawing dates). Tables, outlooks and text are TagCanyon's own; FWP does not warrant or endorse them. Not affiliated with FWP. Retrieved Oct 17, 2026.