447-20 Elk Permit Draw Odds, Montana
Elk permit, district 447-20, from FWP's 2023 to 2026 drawing statistics. Jump to resident odds or nonresident odds.
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| Fact | Value |
|---|---|
| Drawing | Elk permit, district 447-20 |
| 2026 total quota | 100 |
| 2026 nonresident cap (FWP's NR quota column) | 10 |
| 2026 landowner preference cap: resident / nonresident | 15 / 10 |
| 2026 first-choice applicants: resident / nonresident | 1,264 / 72 |
| 2026 drawn on first choice: resident / nonresident | 81 / 4 |
| 2026 first-choice odds: resident / nonresident | 6.4% / 5.6% |
| 2026 total successful (all choices and pools) | 100 |
Resident odds by bonus point (2026 drawing)
Share of first-choice resident applicants at each bonus-point level who drew, from FWP's 2026 bonus point report. Each applicant gets one chance plus their points squared, so the draw favors high point holders without a hard cutoff. How Montana bonus points work.
| Bonus points | Chances in drawing | 1st-choice applicants | Drawn | Odds at this level |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 110 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 1 | 2 | 245 | 1 | 0.4% |
| 2 | 5 | 173 | 4 | 2.3% |
| 3 | 10 | 176 | 7 | 4.0% |
| 4 | 17 | 130 | 10 | 7.7% |
| 5 | 26 | 107 | 10 | 9.3% |
| 6 | 37 | 101 | 5 | 5.0% |
| 7 | 50 | 55 | 7 | 12.7% |
| 8 | 65 | 62 | 13 | 21.0% |
| 9 | 82 | 37 | 7 | 18.9% |
| 10 | 101 | 18 | 3 | 16.7% |
| 11 | 122 | 9 | 3 | 33.3% |
| 12 | 145 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% |
| 13 | 170 | 9 | 3 | 33.3% |
| 14 | 197 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% |
| 15 | 226 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 16 | 257 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 17 | 290 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 18 | 325 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
| 19 | 362 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
| 21 | 442 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
| 24 | 577 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
Resident outlook for 2027
If first-choice demand keeps its 2023 to 2026 trend (+37 applicants a year), about 1,301 residents would apply in 2027; with the same number of first-choice licenses, overall first-choice odds would be about 6%. Average bonus points among first-choice applicants are trending to about 3.9 (+0.14 a year), a measure of point creep in a weighted draw. Confidence: medium.
Landowner preference (residents, 2026): 23 first-choice applicants, 12 drawn.
Nonresident odds by bonus point (2026 drawing)
Share of first-choice nonresident applicants at each bonus-point level who drew, from FWP's 2026 bonus point report. Each applicant gets one chance plus their points squared, so the draw favors high point holders without a hard cutoff. How Montana bonus points work.
| Bonus points | Chances in drawing | 1st-choice applicants | Drawn | Odds at this level |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 2 | 5 | 9 | 1 | 11.1% |
| 3 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 4 | 17 | 15 | 1 | 6.7% |
| 5 | 26 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 6 | 37 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% |
| 7 | 50 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 8 | 65 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 9 | 82 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 10 | 101 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 11 | 122 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
Nonresident outlook for 2027
If first-choice demand keeps its 2023 to 2026 trend (+5 applicants a year), about 77 nonresidents would apply in 2027; with the same number of first-choice licenses, overall first-choice odds would be about 5%. Average bonus points among first-choice applicants are trending to about 4.0 (+0.22 a year), a measure of point creep in a weighted draw. Confidence: low.
Landowner preference (nonresidents, 2026): 5 first-choice applicants, 3 drawn.
First-choice odds by year
First-choice draws over first-choice applicants in the regular drawing (landowner preference excluded).
| Draw year | Quota | Res applicants | Res odds | NR applicants | NR odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 100 | 1,154 | 6.7% | 57 | 14.0% |
| 2024 | 100 | 1,263 | 6.6% | 75 | 2.7% |
| 2025 | 100 | 1,281 | 6.2% | 63 | 9.5% |
| 2026 | 100 | 1,264 | 6.4% | 72 | 5.6% |
Outlook method: see the top of the Montana points explainer and our forecast method. It is a trend line, not a promise.
Notes from TagCanyon
- In 2026, 1,264 residents listed this drawing first for a quota of 100, about 12.6 resident applicants per license.
- Residents: at 0 bonus points 0% drew; at 14 points (the highest level with at least 5 applicants) 40% drew.
- Nonresidents: at 1 bonus points 0% drew; at 6 points (the highest level with at least 5 applicants) 33% drew.
Deadline
Deer and elk permits: FWP's 2026 window ran Mar 1 to Apr 1, 2026 (11:45 p.m. Mountain), with results in mid-April. FWP has not posted 2027 dates yet; the April 1 deadline has held in recent years. FWP application and drawing dates.
Source: Montana Fish, Wildlife & Parks (FWP), 2026 Drawing Statistics reports (MyFWP drawing statistics, FWP application and drawing dates). Tables, outlooks and text are TagCanyon's own; FWP does not warrant or endorse them. Not affiliated with FWP. Retrieved Oct 17, 2026.
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