445-20 Elk Permit Draw Odds, Montana

Elk permit, district 445-20, from FWP's 2023 to 2026 drawing statistics. Jump to resident odds or nonresident odds.

Fact	Value
Drawing	Elk permit, district 445-20
2026 total quota	35
2026 nonresident cap (FWP's NR quota column)	3
2026 landowner preference cap: resident / nonresident	6 / 3
2026 first-choice applicants: resident / nonresident	710 / 28
2026 drawn on first choice: resident / nonresident	28 / 1
2026 first-choice odds: resident / nonresident	3.9% / 3.6%
2026 total successful (all choices and pools)	35

Resident odds by bonus point (2026 drawing)

Share of first-choice resident applicants at each bonus-point level who drew, from FWP's 2026 bonus point report. Each applicant gets one chance plus their points squared, so the draw favors high point holders without a hard cutoff. How Montana bonus points work.

Bonus points	Chances in drawing	1st-choice applicants	Drawn	Odds at this level
0	1	46	0	0.0%
1	2	86	0	0.0%
2	5	79	3	3.8%
3	10	81	0	0.0%
4	17	90	3	3.3%
5	26	73	5	6.8%
6	37	41	1	2.4%
7	50	37	3	8.1%
8	65	39	3	7.7%
9	82	42	3	7.1%
10	101	23	2	8.7%
11	122	17	2	11.8%
12	145	16	0	0.0%
13	170	14	3	21.4%
14	197	6	0	0.0%
15	226	7	0	0.0%
16	257	7	0	0.0%
17	290	1	0	0.0%
19	362	1	0	0.0%
22	485	1	0	0.0%
23	530	2	0	0.0%

Resident outlook for 2027

If first-choice demand keeps its 2023 to 2026 trend (+21 applicants a year), about 731 residents would apply in 2027; with the same number of first-choice licenses, overall first-choice odds would be about 4%. Average bonus points among first-choice applicants are trending to about 5.4 (+0.32 a year), a measure of point creep in a weighted draw. Confidence: medium.

Landowner preference (residents, 2026): 6 first-choice applicants, 5 drawn.

Nonresident odds by bonus point (2026 drawing)

Share of first-choice nonresident applicants at each bonus-point level who drew, from FWP's 2026 bonus point report. Each applicant gets one chance plus their points squared, so the draw favors high point holders without a hard cutoff. How Montana bonus points work.

Bonus points	Chances in drawing	1st-choice applicants	Drawn	Odds at this level
0	1	2	0	0.0%
1	2	4	0	0.0%
2	5	6	0	0.0%
3	10	1	0	0.0%
4	17	4	0	0.0%
5	26	2	0	0.0%
6	37	2	0	0.0%
7	50	1	0	0.0%
8	65	1	0	0.0%
9	82	3	0	0.0%
11	122	1	0	0.0%
12	145	1	1	100.0%

Nonresident outlook for 2027

If first-choice demand keeps its 2023 to 2026 trend (-2 applicants a year), about 26 nonresidents would apply in 2027; with the same number of first-choice licenses, overall first-choice odds would be about 4%. Average bonus points among first-choice applicants are trending to about 4.7 (+0.37 a year), a measure of point creep in a weighted draw. Confidence: medium.

Landowner preference (nonresidents, 2026): 1 first-choice applicants, 1 drawn.

First-choice odds by year

First-choice draws over first-choice applicants in the regular drawing (landowner preference excluded).

Draw year	Quota	Res applicants	Res odds	NR applicants	NR odds
2023	35	647	4.3%	33	6.1%
2024	35	689	4.2%	41	7.3%
2025	35	668	4.2%	40	5.0%
2026	35	710	3.9%	28	3.6%

Outlook method: see the top of the Montana points explainer and our forecast method. It is a trend line, not a promise.

Notes from TagCanyon

In 2026, 710 residents listed this drawing first for a quota of 35, about 20.3 resident applicants per license.
Residents: at 0 bonus points 0% drew; at 16 points (the highest level with at least 5 applicants) 0% drew.

Deadline

Deer and elk permits: FWP's 2026 window ran Mar 1 to Apr 1, 2026 (11:45 p.m. Mountain), with results in mid-April. FWP has not posted 2027 dates yet; the April 1 deadline has held in recent years. FWP application and drawing dates.

Source: Montana Fish, Wildlife & Parks (FWP), 2026 Drawing Statistics reports (MyFWP drawing statistics, FWP application and drawing dates). Tables, outlooks and text are TagCanyon's own; FWP does not warrant or endorse them. Not affiliated with FWP. Retrieved Oct 17, 2026.