441-20 Elk Permit Draw Odds, Montana

Elk permit, district 441-20, from FWP's 2023 to 2026 drawing statistics. Jump to resident odds or nonresident odds.

Fact	Value
Drawing	Elk permit, district 441-20
2026 total quota	35
2026 nonresident cap (FWP's NR quota column)	3
2026 landowner preference cap: resident / nonresident	6 / 3
2026 first-choice applicants: resident / nonresident	514 / 12
2026 drawn on first choice: resident / nonresident	28 / 1
2026 first-choice odds: resident / nonresident	5.4% / 8.3%
2026 total successful (all choices and pools)	35

Resident odds by bonus point (2026 drawing)

Share of first-choice resident applicants at each bonus-point level who drew, from FWP's 2026 bonus point report. Each applicant gets one chance plus their points squared, so the draw favors high point holders without a hard cutoff. How Montana bonus points work.

Bonus points	Chances in drawing	1st-choice applicants	Drawn	Odds at this level
0	1	65	0	0.0%
1	2	80	1	1.2%
2	5	68	1	1.5%
3	10	66	3	4.5%
4	17	62	1	1.6%
5	26	40	0	0.0%
6	37	34	5	14.7%
7	50	22	3	13.6%
8	65	21	6	28.6%
9	82	20	3	15.0%
10	101	9	0	0.0%
11	122	8	1	12.5%
12	145	3	1	33.3%
13	170	2	1	50.0%
14	197	3	1	33.3%
15	226	4	1	25.0%
16	257	1	0	0.0%

Resident outlook for 2027

If first-choice demand keeps its 2023 to 2026 trend (+15 applicants a year), about 529 residents would apply in 2027; with the same number of first-choice licenses, overall first-choice odds would be about 5%. Average bonus points among first-choice applicants are trending to about 3.9 (+0.10 a year), a measure of point creep in a weighted draw. Confidence: medium.

Landowner preference (residents, 2026): 11 first-choice applicants, 5 drawn.

Nonresident odds by bonus point (2026 drawing)

Share of first-choice nonresident applicants at each bonus-point level who drew, from FWP's 2026 bonus point report. Each applicant gets one chance plus their points squared, so the draw favors high point holders without a hard cutoff. How Montana bonus points work.

Bonus points	Chances in drawing	1st-choice applicants	Drawn	Odds at this level
0	1	1	0	0.0%
1	2	3	0	0.0%
3	10	1	0	0.0%
4	17	3	0	0.0%
6	37	2	0	0.0%
8	65	1	1	100.0%
9	82	1	0	0.0%

Nonresident outlook for 2027

If first-choice demand keeps its 2023 to 2026 trend (-1 applicants a year), about 11 nonresidents would apply in 2027; with the same number of first-choice licenses, overall first-choice odds would be about 9%. Average bonus points among first-choice applicants are trending to about 4.3 (+0.35 a year), a measure of point creep in a weighted draw. Confidence: medium.

Landowner preference (nonresidents, 2026): 1 first-choice applicants, 1 drawn.

First-choice odds by year

First-choice draws over first-choice applicants in the regular drawing (landowner preference excluded).

Draw year	Quota	Res applicants	Res odds	NR applicants	NR odds
2023	35	468	6.2%	16	0.0%
2024	35	488	5.9%	13	0.0%
2025	35	466	6.2%	16	0.0%
2026	35	514	5.4%	12	8.3%

Outlook method: see the top of the Montana points explainer and our forecast method. It is a trend line, not a promise.

Notes from TagCanyon

In 2026, 514 residents listed this drawing first for a quota of 35, about 14.7 resident applicants per license.
Residents: at 0 bonus points 0% drew; at 11 points (the highest level with at least 5 applicants) 12% drew.

Deadline

Deer and elk permits: FWP's 2026 window ran Mar 1 to Apr 1, 2026 (11:45 p.m. Mountain), with results in mid-April. FWP has not posted 2027 dates yet; the April 1 deadline has held in recent years. FWP application and drawing dates.

Source: Montana Fish, Wildlife & Parks (FWP), 2026 Drawing Statistics reports (MyFWP drawing statistics, FWP application and drawing dates). Tables, outlooks and text are TagCanyon's own; FWP does not warrant or endorse them. Not affiliated with FWP. Retrieved Oct 17, 2026.