426-20 Elk Permit Draw Odds, Montana
Elk permit, district 426-20 (first and only), from FWP's 2023 to 2026 drawing statistics. Jump to resident odds or nonresident odds.
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| Fact | Value |
|---|---|
| Drawing | Elk permit, district 426-20 (first and only) |
| 2026 total quota | 60 |
| 2026 nonresident cap (FWP's NR quota column) | 6 |
| 2026 landowner preference cap: resident / nonresident | 9 / 6 |
| 2026 first-choice applicants: resident / nonresident | 396 / 51 |
| 2026 drawn on first choice: resident / nonresident | 46 / 5 |
| 2026 first-choice odds: resident / nonresident | 11.6% / 9.8% |
| 2026 total successful (all choices and pools) | 60 |
Resident odds by bonus point (2026 drawing)
Share of first-choice resident applicants at each bonus-point level who drew, from FWP's 2026 bonus point report. Each applicant gets one chance plus their points squared, so the draw favors high point holders without a hard cutoff. How Montana bonus points work.
| Bonus points | Chances in drawing | 1st-choice applicants | Drawn | Odds at this level |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 40 | 2 | 5.0% |
| 1 | 2 | 95 | 3 | 3.2% |
| 2 | 5 | 71 | 4 | 5.6% |
| 3 | 10 | 51 | 5 | 9.8% |
| 4 | 17 | 41 | 5 | 12.2% |
| 5 | 26 | 38 | 11 | 28.9% |
| 6 | 37 | 21 | 3 | 14.3% |
| 7 | 50 | 11 | 3 | 27.3% |
| 8 | 65 | 11 | 4 | 36.4% |
| 9 | 82 | 3 | 2 | 66.7% |
| 11 | 122 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% |
| 14 | 197 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
| 17 | 290 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
| 19 | 362 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 24 | 577 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
Resident outlook for 2027
If first-choice demand keeps its 2023 to 2026 trend (+30 applicants a year), about 426 residents would apply in 2027; with the same number of first-choice licenses, overall first-choice odds would be about 11%. Average bonus points among first-choice applicants are trending to about 3.3 (+0.28 a year), a measure of point creep in a weighted draw. Confidence: medium.
Landowner preference (residents, 2026): 15 first-choice applicants, 8 drawn.
Nonresident odds by bonus point (2026 drawing)
Share of first-choice nonresident applicants at each bonus-point level who drew, from FWP's 2026 bonus point report. Each applicant gets one chance plus their points squared, so the draw favors high point holders without a hard cutoff. How Montana bonus points work.
| Bonus points | Chances in drawing | 1st-choice applicants | Drawn | Odds at this level |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 2 | 5 | 18 | 2 | 11.1% |
| 3 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 4 | 17 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
| 5 | 26 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% |
| 6 | 37 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 7 | 50 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 8 | 65 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
Nonresident outlook for 2027
If first-choice demand keeps its 2023 to 2026 trend (+2 applicants a year), about 53 nonresidents would apply in 2027; with the same number of first-choice licenses, overall first-choice odds would be about 9%. Average bonus points among first-choice applicants are trending to about 3.1 (+0.16 a year), a measure of point creep in a weighted draw. Confidence: low.
Landowner preference (nonresidents, 2026): 3 first-choice applicants, 1 drawn.
First-choice odds by year
First-choice draws over first-choice applicants in the regular drawing (landowner preference excluded).
| Draw year | Quota | Res applicants | Res odds | NR applicants | NR odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 60 | 307 | 15.0% | 45 | 11.1% |
| 2024 | 60 | 368 | 12.5% | 49 | 10.2% |
| 2025 | 60 | 393 | 12.2% | 34 | 8.8% |
| 2026 | 60 | 396 | 11.6% | 51 | 9.8% |
Outlook method: see the top of the Montana points explainer and our forecast method. It is a trend line, not a promise.
Notes from TagCanyon
- In 2026, 396 residents listed this drawing first for a quota of 60, about 6.6 resident applicants per license.
- FWP lists this as a first-choice-only drawing: applying for it rules out second and third choices for that species.
- Residents: at 0 bonus points 5% drew; at 8 points (the highest level with at least 5 applicants) 36% drew.
- Nonresidents: at 2 bonus points 11% drew; at 5 points (the highest level with at least 5 applicants) 25% drew.
Deadline
Deer and elk permits: FWP's 2026 window ran Mar 1 to Apr 1, 2026 (11:45 p.m. Mountain), with results in mid-April. FWP has not posted 2027 dates yet; the April 1 deadline has held in recent years. FWP application and drawing dates.
Source: Montana Fish, Wildlife & Parks (FWP), 2026 Drawing Statistics reports (MyFWP drawing statistics, FWP application and drawing dates). Tables, outlooks and text are TagCanyon's own; FWP does not warrant or endorse them. Not affiliated with FWP. Retrieved Oct 17, 2026.
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