420-20 Elk Permit Draw Odds, Montana

Elk permit, district 420-20, from FWP's 2023 to 2026 drawing statistics. Jump to resident odds or nonresident odds.

Fact	Value
Drawing	Elk permit, district 420-20
2026 total quota	80
2026 nonresident cap (FWP's NR quota column)	8
2026 landowner preference cap: resident / nonresident	12 / 8
2026 first-choice applicants: resident / nonresident	517 / 41
2026 drawn on first choice: resident / nonresident	66 / 7
2026 first-choice odds: resident / nonresident	12.8% / 17.1%
2026 total successful (all choices and pools)	80

Resident odds by bonus point (2026 drawing)

Share of first-choice resident applicants at each bonus-point level who drew, from FWP's 2026 bonus point report. Each applicant gets one chance plus their points squared, so the draw favors high point holders without a hard cutoff. How Montana bonus points work.

Bonus points	Chances in drawing	1st-choice applicants	Drawn	Odds at this level
0	1	49	0	0.0%
1	2	101	1	1.0%
2	5	82	9	11.0%
3	10	68	3	4.4%
4	17	70	9	12.9%
5	26	63	10	15.9%
6	37	35	13	37.1%
7	50	19	7	36.8%
8	65	14	4	28.6%
9	82	7	4	57.1%
10	101	4	1	25.0%
11	122	1	1	100.0%
13	170	2	2	100.0%
15	226	1	1	100.0%
19	362	1	1	100.0%

Resident outlook for 2027

If first-choice demand keeps its 2023 to 2026 trend (-21 applicants a year), about 496 residents would apply in 2027; with the same number of first-choice licenses, overall first-choice odds would be about 13%. Average bonus points among first-choice applicants are trending to about 3.3 (+0.05 a year), a measure of point creep in a weighted draw. Confidence: medium.

Landowner preference (residents, 2026): 6 first-choice applicants, 6 drawn.

Nonresident odds by bonus point (2026 drawing)

Share of first-choice nonresident applicants at each bonus-point level who drew, from FWP's 2026 bonus point report. Each applicant gets one chance plus their points squared, so the draw favors high point holders without a hard cutoff. How Montana bonus points work.

Bonus points	Chances in drawing	1st-choice applicants	Drawn	Odds at this level
0	1	4	0	0.0%
1	2	4	0	0.0%
2	5	4	0	0.0%
3	10	3	0	0.0%
4	17	5	0	0.0%
5	26	4	1	25.0%
6	37	4	0	0.0%
7	50	6	2	33.3%
8	65	4	2	50.0%
9	82	3	2	66.7%

Nonresident outlook for 2027

If first-choice demand keeps its 2023 to 2026 trend (+0 applicants a year), about 41 nonresidents would apply in 2027; with the same number of first-choice licenses, overall first-choice odds would be about 17%. Average bonus points among first-choice applicants are trending to about 5.3 (+0.81 a year), a measure of point creep in a weighted draw. Confidence: low.

Landowner preference (nonresidents, 2026): 1 first-choice applicants, 1 drawn.

First-choice odds by year

First-choice draws over first-choice applicants in the regular drawing (landowner preference excluded).

Draw year	Quota	Res applicants	Res odds	NR applicants	NR odds
2023	80	580	12.2%	40	5.0%
2024	80	568	12.3%	37	8.1%
2025	80	548	13.7%	27	7.4%
2026	80	517	12.8%	41	17.1%

Outlook method: see the top of the Montana points explainer and our forecast method. It is a trend line, not a promise.

Notes from TagCanyon

In 2026, 517 residents listed this drawing first for a quota of 80, about 6.5 resident applicants per license.
Residents: at 0 bonus points 0% drew; at 9 points (the highest level with at least 5 applicants) 57% drew.
Nonresidents: at 4 bonus points 0% drew; at 7 points (the highest level with at least 5 applicants) 33% drew.

Deadline

Deer and elk permits: FWP's 2026 window ran Mar 1 to Apr 1, 2026 (11:45 p.m. Mountain), with results in mid-April. FWP has not posted 2027 dates yet; the April 1 deadline has held in recent years. FWP application and drawing dates.

Source: Montana Fish, Wildlife & Parks (FWP), 2026 Drawing Statistics reports (MyFWP drawing statistics, FWP application and drawing dates). Tables, outlooks and text are TagCanyon's own; FWP does not warrant or endorse them. Not affiliated with FWP. Retrieved Oct 17, 2026.