411-21 Elk Permit Draw Odds, Montana

Elk permit, district 411-21 (first and only archery only), from FWP's 2023 to 2026 drawing statistics. Jump to resident odds or nonresident odds.

Fact	Value
Drawing	Elk permit, district 411-21 (first and only archery only)
2026 total quota	1,000
2026 nonresident cap (FWP's NR quota column)	100
2026 landowner preference cap: resident / nonresident	150 / 100
2026 first-choice applicants: resident / nonresident	726 / 182
2026 drawn on first choice: resident / nonresident	726 / 182
2026 first-choice odds: resident / nonresident	100.0% / 100.0%
2026 total successful (all choices and pools)	924

Resident odds by bonus point (2026 drawing)

Share of first-choice resident applicants at each bonus-point level who drew, from FWP's 2026 bonus point report. Each applicant gets one chance plus their points squared, so the draw favors high point holders without a hard cutoff. How Montana bonus points work.

Bonus points	Chances in drawing	1st-choice applicants	Drawn	Odds at this level
0	1	279	279	100.0%
1	2	375	375	100.0%
2	5	46	46	100.0%
3	10	10	10	100.0%
4	17	12	12	100.0%
5	26	1	1	100.0%
6	37	1	1	100.0%
8	65	2	2	100.0%

Resident outlook for 2027

If first-choice demand keeps its 2023 to 2026 trend (+15 applicants a year), about 741 residents would apply in 2027; with the same number of first-choice licenses, overall first-choice odds would be about 98%. Average bonus points among first-choice applicants are trending to about 0.8 (-0.02 a year), a measure of point creep in a weighted draw. Confidence: medium.

Landowner preference (residents, 2026): 7 first-choice applicants, 7 drawn.

Nonresident odds by bonus point (2026 drawing)

Share of first-choice nonresident applicants at each bonus-point level who drew, from FWP's 2026 bonus point report. Each applicant gets one chance plus their points squared, so the draw favors high point holders without a hard cutoff. How Montana bonus points work.

Bonus points	Chances in drawing	1st-choice applicants	Drawn	Odds at this level
0	1	40	40	100.0%
1	2	76	76	100.0%
2	5	36	36	100.0%
3	10	12	12	100.0%
4	17	10	10	100.0%
5	26	2	2	100.0%
6	37	4	4	100.0%
7	50	1	1	100.0%
8	65	1	1	100.0%

Nonresident outlook for 2027

If first-choice demand keeps its 2023 to 2026 trend (+22 applicants a year), about 204 nonresidents would apply in 2027; with the same number of first-choice licenses, overall first-choice odds would be about 89%. Average bonus points among first-choice applicants are trending to about 1.4 (-0.08 a year), a measure of point creep in a weighted draw. Confidence: low.

Landowner preference (nonresidents, 2026): 9 first-choice applicants, 9 drawn.

First-choice odds by year

First-choice draws over first-choice applicants in the regular drawing (landowner preference excluded).

Draw year	Quota	Res applicants	Res odds	NR applicants	NR odds
2023	1,000	680	100.0%	117	100.0%
2024	1,000	688	100.0%	193	100.0%
2025	1,000	738	100.0%	162	100.0%
2026	1,000	726	100.0%	182	100.0%

Outlook method: see the top of the Montana points explainer and our forecast method. It is a trend line, not a promise.

Notes from TagCanyon

In 2026, 726 residents listed this drawing first for a quota of 1,000, about 0.7 resident applicants per license.
FWP lists this as a first-choice-only drawing: applying for it rules out second and third choices for that species.
Residents: at 0 bonus points 100% drew; at 4 points (the highest level with at least 5 applicants) 100% drew.
Nonresidents: at 0 bonus points 100% drew; at 4 points (the highest level with at least 5 applicants) 100% drew.

Deadline

Deer and elk permits: FWP's 2026 window ran Mar 1 to Apr 1, 2026 (11:45 p.m. Mountain), with results in mid-April. FWP has not posted 2027 dates yet; the April 1 deadline has held in recent years. FWP application and drawing dates.

Source: Montana Fish, Wildlife & Parks (FWP), 2026 Drawing Statistics reports (MyFWP drawing statistics, FWP application and drawing dates). Tables, outlooks and text are TagCanyon's own; FWP does not warrant or endorse them. Not affiliated with FWP. Retrieved Oct 17, 2026.