410-20 Elk Permit Draw Odds, Montana
Elk permit, district 410-20, from FWP's 2023 to 2026 drawing statistics. Jump to resident odds or nonresident odds.
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| Fact | Value |
|---|---|
| Drawing | Elk permit, district 410-20 |
| 2026 total quota | 75 |
| 2026 nonresident cap (FWP's NR quota column) | 7 |
| 2026 landowner preference cap: resident / nonresident | 12 / 7 |
| 2026 first-choice applicants: resident / nonresident | 4,108 / 233 |
| 2026 drawn on first choice: resident / nonresident | 61 / 2 |
| 2026 first-choice odds: resident / nonresident | 1.5% / 0.9% |
| 2026 total successful (all choices and pools) | 75 |
Resident odds by bonus point (2026 drawing)
Share of first-choice resident applicants at each bonus-point level who drew, from FWP's 2026 bonus point report. Each applicant gets one chance plus their points squared, so the draw favors high point holders without a hard cutoff. How Montana bonus points work.
| Bonus points | Chances in drawing | 1st-choice applicants | Drawn | Odds at this level |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 355 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 1 | 2 | 600 | 1 | 0.2% |
| 2 | 5 | 494 | 2 | 0.4% |
| 3 | 10 | 443 | 1 | 0.2% |
| 4 | 17 | 392 | 2 | 0.5% |
| 5 | 26 | 344 | 4 | 1.2% |
| 6 | 37 | 294 | 5 | 1.7% |
| 7 | 50 | 225 | 3 | 1.3% |
| 8 | 65 | 194 | 5 | 2.6% |
| 9 | 82 | 162 | 7 | 4.3% |
| 10 | 101 | 125 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 11 | 122 | 89 | 3 | 3.4% |
| 12 | 145 | 93 | 3 | 3.2% |
| 13 | 170 | 47 | 3 | 6.4% |
| 14 | 197 | 45 | 3 | 6.7% |
| 15 | 226 | 42 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 16 | 257 | 40 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 17 | 290 | 27 | 5 | 18.5% |
| 18 | 325 | 18 | 2 | 11.1% |
| 19 | 362 | 20 | 4 | 20.0% |
| 20 | 401 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% |
| 21 | 442 | 11 | 3 | 27.3% |
| 22 | 485 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% |
| 23 | 530 | 16 | 3 | 18.8% |
| 24 | 577 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% |
Resident outlook for 2027
If first-choice demand keeps its 2023 to 2026 trend (-117 applicants a year), about 3,991 residents would apply in 2027; with the same number of first-choice licenses, overall first-choice odds would be about 2%. Average bonus points among first-choice applicants are trending to about 5.3 (+0.25 a year), a measure of point creep in a weighted draw. Confidence: medium.
Landowner preference (residents, 2026): 22 first-choice applicants, 7 drawn.
Nonresident odds by bonus point (2026 drawing)
Share of first-choice nonresident applicants at each bonus-point level who drew, from FWP's 2026 bonus point report. Each applicant gets one chance plus their points squared, so the draw favors high point holders without a hard cutoff. How Montana bonus points work.
| Bonus points | Chances in drawing | 1st-choice applicants | Drawn | Odds at this level |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 13 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 1 | 2 | 50 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 2 | 5 | 49 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 3 | 10 | 17 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 4 | 17 | 21 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 5 | 26 | 12 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 6 | 37 | 15 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 7 | 50 | 15 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 8 | 65 | 14 | 1 | 7.1% |
| 9 | 82 | 8 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 10 | 101 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 11 | 122 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 12 | 145 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 13 | 170 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% |
| 14 | 197 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 15 | 226 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 16 | 257 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
Nonresident outlook for 2027
If first-choice demand keeps its 2023 to 2026 trend (-8 applicants a year), about 225 nonresidents would apply in 2027; with the same number of first-choice licenses, overall first-choice odds would be about 1%. Average bonus points among first-choice applicants are trending to about 4.3 (+0.22 a year), a measure of point creep in a weighted draw. Confidence: medium.
Landowner preference (nonresidents, 2026): 7 first-choice applicants, 5 drawn.
First-choice odds by year
First-choice draws over first-choice applicants in the regular drawing (landowner preference excluded).
| Draw year | Quota | Res applicants | Res odds | NR applicants | NR odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 75 | 4,460 | 1.3% | 256 | 1.6% |
| 2024 | 75 | 4,141 | 1.4% | 265 | 1.1% |
| 2025 | 75 | 3,980 | 1.6% | 219 | 0.0% |
| 2026 | 75 | 4,108 | 1.5% | 233 | 0.9% |
Outlook method: see the top of the Montana points explainer and our forecast method. It is a trend line, not a promise.
Notes from TagCanyon
- In 2026, 4,108 residents listed this drawing first for a quota of 75, about 54.8 resident applicants per license.
- Residents: at 0 bonus points 0% drew; at 23 points (the highest level with at least 5 applicants) 19% drew.
- Nonresidents: at 0 bonus points 0% drew; at 9 points (the highest level with at least 5 applicants) 0% drew.
Deadline
Deer and elk permits: FWP's 2026 window ran Mar 1 to Apr 1, 2026 (11:45 p.m. Mountain), with results in mid-April. FWP has not posted 2027 dates yet; the April 1 deadline has held in recent years. FWP application and drawing dates.
Source: Montana Fish, Wildlife & Parks (FWP), 2026 Drawing Statistics reports (MyFWP drawing statistics, FWP application and drawing dates). Tables, outlooks and text are TagCanyon's own; FWP does not warrant or endorse them. Not affiliated with FWP. Retrieved Oct 17, 2026.
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