391-00 Elk B License Draw Odds, Montana

Elk b license, district 391-00, from FWP's 2023 to 2026 drawing statistics. Jump to resident odds or nonresident odds.

Fact	Value
Drawing	Elk b license, district 391-00
2026 total quota	175
2026 nonresident cap (FWP's NR quota column)	17
2026 landowner preference cap: resident / nonresident	27 / 17
2026 first-choice applicants: resident / nonresident	230 / 54
2026 drawn on first choice: resident / nonresident	157 / 15
2026 first-choice odds: resident / nonresident	68.3% / 27.8%
2026 total successful (all choices and pools)	175

Resident odds by bonus point (2026 drawing)

Share of first-choice resident applicants at each bonus-point level who drew, from FWP's 2026 bonus point report. Each applicant gets one chance plus their points squared, so the draw favors high point holders without a hard cutoff. How Montana bonus points work.

Bonus points	Chances in drawing	1st-choice applicants	Drawn	Odds at this level
0	1	81	41	50.6%
1	2	95	64	67.4%
2	5	44	42	95.5%
3	10	6	6	100.0%
4	17	3	3	100.0%
6	37	1	1	100.0%

Resident outlook for 2027

If first-choice demand keeps its 2023 to 2026 trend (-18 applicants a year), about 212 residents would apply in 2027; with the same number of first-choice licenses, overall first-choice odds would be about 74%. Average bonus points among first-choice applicants are trending to about 1.0 (+0.04 a year), a measure of point creep in a weighted draw. Confidence: medium.

Landowner preference (residents, 2026): 1 first-choice applicants, 1 drawn.

Nonresident odds by bonus point (2026 drawing)

Share of first-choice nonresident applicants at each bonus-point level who drew, from FWP's 2026 bonus point report. Each applicant gets one chance plus their points squared, so the draw favors high point holders without a hard cutoff. How Montana bonus points work.

Bonus points	Chances in drawing	1st-choice applicants	Drawn	Odds at this level
0	1	7	0	0.0%
1	2	24	7	29.2%
2	5	17	3	17.6%
3	10	5	4	80.0%
4	17	1	1	100.0%

Nonresident outlook for 2027

If first-choice demand keeps its 2023 to 2026 trend (+0 applicants a year), about 54 nonresidents would apply in 2027; with the same number of first-choice licenses, overall first-choice odds would be about 28%. Average bonus points among first-choice applicants are trending to about 1.6 (+0.15 a year), a measure of point creep in a weighted draw. Confidence: medium.

Landowner preference (nonresidents, 2026): 2 first-choice applicants, 2 drawn.

First-choice odds by year

First-choice draws over first-choice applicants in the regular drawing (landowner preference excluded).

Draw year	Quota	Res applicants	Res odds	NR applicants	NR odds
2023	175	283	55.8%	54	29.6%
2024	175	276	56.9%	45	35.6%
2025	175	245	64.9%	47	27.7%
2026	175	230	68.3%	54	27.8%

Outlook method: see the top of the Montana points explainer and our forecast method. It is a trend line, not a promise.

Notes from TagCanyon

In 2026, 230 residents listed this drawing first for a quota of 175, about 1.3 resident applicants per license.
Residents: at 0 bonus points 51% drew; at 3 points (the highest level with at least 5 applicants) 100% drew.
Nonresidents: at 0 bonus points 0% drew; at 3 points (the highest level with at least 5 applicants) 80% drew.

Deadline

Elk B, deer B, antelope and antelope B licenses: FWP's 2026 window ran Mar 1 to Jun 1, 2026 (11:45 p.m. Mountain). FWP has not posted 2027 dates yet; the June 1 deadline has held in recent years. FWP application and drawing dates.

Source: Montana Fish, Wildlife & Parks (FWP), 2026 Drawing Statistics reports (MyFWP drawing statistics, FWP application and drawing dates). Tables, outlooks and text are TagCanyon's own; FWP does not warrant or endorse them. Not affiliated with FWP. Retrieved Oct 17, 2026.