310-46 Elk Permit Draw Odds, Montana

Elk permit, district 310-46, from FWP's 2023 to 2026 drawing statistics. Jump to resident odds or nonresident odds.

Fact	Value
Drawing	Elk permit, district 310-46
2026 total quota	5
2026 nonresident cap (FWP's NR quota column)	0
2026 landowner preference cap: resident / nonresident	1 / 0
2026 first-choice applicants: resident / nonresident	1,216 / 0
2026 drawn on first choice: resident / nonresident	5 / 0
2026 first-choice odds: resident / nonresident	0.4% / —
2026 total successful (all choices and pools)	5

Resident odds by bonus point (2026 drawing)

Share of first-choice resident applicants at each bonus-point level who drew, from FWP's 2026 bonus point report. Each applicant gets one chance plus their points squared, so the draw favors high point holders without a hard cutoff. How Montana bonus points work.

Bonus points	Chances in drawing	1st-choice applicants	Drawn	Odds at this level
0	1	94	0	0.0%
1	2	197	0	0.0%
2	5	141	1	0.7%
3	10	138	0	0.0%
4	17	101	0	0.0%
5	26	92	0	0.0%
6	37	85	0	0.0%
7	50	48	0	0.0%
8	65	48	1	2.1%
9	82	44	1	2.3%
10	101	35	0	0.0%
11	122	23	0	0.0%
12	145	29	1	3.4%
13	170	24	0	0.0%
14	197	18	0	0.0%
15	226	20	0	0.0%
16	257	12	1	8.3%
17	290	12	0	0.0%
18	325	7	0	0.0%
19	362	7	0	0.0%
20	401	11	0	0.0%
21	442	13	0	0.0%
22	485	5	0	0.0%
23	530	6	0	0.0%
24	577	6	0	0.0%

Resident outlook for 2027

If first-choice demand keeps its 2023 to 2026 trend (+53 applicants a year), about 1,269 residents would apply in 2027; with the same number of first-choice licenses, overall first-choice odds would be about 0%. Average bonus points among first-choice applicants are trending to about 5.6 (+0.02 a year), a measure of point creep in a weighted draw. Confidence: medium.

Nonresident odds by bonus point (2026 drawing)

Share of first-choice nonresident applicants at each bonus-point level who drew, from FWP's 2026 bonus point report. Each applicant gets one chance plus their points squared, so the draw favors high point holders without a hard cutoff. How Montana bonus points work.

FWP lists no nonresident first-choice applicants by point level for 2026.

Nonresident outlook for 2027

Not enough nonresident first-choice applicants across the years for an outlook.

First-choice odds by year

First-choice draws over first-choice applicants in the regular drawing (landowner preference excluded).

Draw year	Quota	Res applicants	Res odds	NR odds
2023	5	1,058	0.5%	—
2024	5	1,310	0.4%	—
2025	5	1,228	0.4%	—
2026	5	1,216	0.4%	—

Outlook method: see the top of the Montana points explainer and our forecast method. It is a trend line, not a promise.

Notes from TagCanyon

In 2026, 1,216 residents listed this drawing first for a quota of 5, about 243.2 resident applicants per license.
Residents: at 0 bonus points 0% drew; at 24 points (the highest level with at least 5 applicants) 0% drew.

Deadline

Deer and elk permits: FWP's 2026 window ran Mar 1 to Apr 1, 2026 (11:45 p.m. Mountain), with results in mid-April. FWP has not posted 2027 dates yet; the April 1 deadline has held in recent years. FWP application and drawing dates.

Source: Montana Fish, Wildlife & Parks (FWP), 2026 Drawing Statistics reports (MyFWP drawing statistics, FWP application and drawing dates). Tables, outlooks and text are TagCanyon's own; FWP does not warrant or endorse them. Not affiliated with FWP. Retrieved Oct 17, 2026.