250-46 Elk Permit Draw Odds, Montana
Elk permit, district 250-46, from FWP's 2026 to 2026 drawing statistics. Jump to resident odds or nonresident odds.
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| Fact | Value |
|---|---|
| Drawing | Elk permit, district 250-46 |
| 2026 total quota | 45 |
| 2026 nonresident cap (FWP's NR quota column) | 4 |
| 2026 landowner preference cap: resident / nonresident | 7 / 4 |
| 2026 first-choice applicants: resident / nonresident | 490 / 27 |
| 2026 drawn on first choice: resident / nonresident | 42 / 3 |
| 2026 first-choice odds: resident / nonresident | 8.6% / 11.1% |
| 2026 total successful (all choices and pools) | 45 |
Resident odds by bonus point (2026 drawing)
Share of first-choice resident applicants at each bonus-point level who drew, from FWP's 2026 bonus point report. Each applicant gets one chance plus their points squared, so the draw favors high point holders without a hard cutoff. How Montana bonus points work.
| Bonus points | Chances in drawing | 1st-choice applicants | Drawn | Odds at this level |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 49 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 1 | 2 | 133 | 2 | 1.5% |
| 2 | 5 | 67 | 2 | 3.0% |
| 3 | 10 | 53 | 1 | 1.9% |
| 4 | 17 | 47 | 5 | 10.6% |
| 5 | 26 | 29 | 2 | 6.9% |
| 6 | 37 | 28 | 4 | 14.3% |
| 7 | 50 | 24 | 6 | 25.0% |
| 8 | 65 | 23 | 5 | 21.7% |
| 9 | 82 | 12 | 4 | 33.3% |
| 10 | 101 | 9 | 4 | 44.4% |
| 11 | 122 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% |
| 12 | 145 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% |
| 13 | 170 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% |
| 14 | 197 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 15 | 226 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
| 17 | 290 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% |
| 20 | 401 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
| 24 | 577 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
Resident outlook for 2027
Not enough resident first-choice applicants across the years for an outlook.
Nonresident odds by bonus point (2026 drawing)
Share of first-choice nonresident applicants at each bonus-point level who drew, from FWP's 2026 bonus point report. Each applicant gets one chance plus their points squared, so the draw favors high point holders without a hard cutoff. How Montana bonus points work.
| Bonus points | Chances in drawing | 1st-choice applicants | Drawn | Odds at this level |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 2 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 3 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 5 | 26 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% |
| 6 | 37 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% |
| 8 | 65 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% |
Nonresident outlook for 2027
Not enough nonresident first-choice applicants across the years for an outlook.
First-choice odds by year
First-choice draws over first-choice applicants in the regular drawing (landowner preference excluded).
| Draw year | Quota | Res applicants | Res odds | NR applicants | NR odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 45 | 490 | 8.6% | 27 | 11.1% |
Outlook method: see the top of the Montana points explainer and our forecast method. It is a trend line, not a promise.
Notes from TagCanyon
- In 2026, 490 residents listed this drawing first for a quota of 45, about 10.9 resident applicants per license.
- Residents: at 0 bonus points 0% drew; at 10 points (the highest level with at least 5 applicants) 44% drew.
- Nonresidents: at 1 bonus points 0% drew; at 2 points (the highest level with at least 5 applicants) 0% drew.
Deadline
Deer and elk permits: FWP's 2026 window ran Mar 1 to Apr 1, 2026 (11:45 p.m. Mountain), with results in mid-April. FWP has not posted 2027 dates yet; the April 1 deadline has held in recent years. FWP application and drawing dates.
Source: Montana Fish, Wildlife & Parks (FWP), 2026 Drawing Statistics reports (MyFWP drawing statistics, FWP application and drawing dates). Tables, outlooks and text are TagCanyon's own; FWP does not warrant or endorse them. Not affiliated with FWP. Retrieved Oct 17, 2026.
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