217-10 Elk Permit Draw Odds, Montana

Elk permit, district 217-10, from FWP's 2023 to 2026 drawing statistics. Jump to resident odds or nonresident odds.

Fact	Value
Drawing	Elk permit, district 217-10
2026 total quota	175
2026 nonresident cap (FWP's NR quota column)	17
2026 landowner preference cap: resident / nonresident	27 / 17
2026 first-choice applicants: resident / nonresident	649 / 40
2026 drawn on first choice: resident / nonresident	159 / 11
2026 first-choice odds: resident / nonresident	24.5% / 27.5%
2026 total successful (all choices and pools)	175

Resident odds by bonus point (2026 drawing)

Share of first-choice resident applicants at each bonus-point level who drew, from FWP's 2026 bonus point report. Each applicant gets one chance plus their points squared, so the draw favors high point holders without a hard cutoff. How Montana bonus points work.

Bonus points	Chances in drawing	1st-choice applicants	Drawn	Odds at this level
0	1	115	3	2.6%
1	2	182	8	4.4%
2	5	142	33	23.2%
3	10	83	35	42.2%
4	17	56	33	58.9%
5	26	33	19	57.6%
6	37	15	9	60.0%
7	50	8	7	87.5%
8	65	5	4	80.0%
9	82	1	1	100.0%
10	101	3	2	66.7%
11	122	2	2	100.0%
14	197	1	1	100.0%
16	257	2	1	50.0%
23	530	1	1	100.0%

Resident outlook for 2027

If first-choice demand keeps its 2023 to 2026 trend (+6 applicants a year), about 655 residents would apply in 2027; with the same number of first-choice licenses, overall first-choice odds would be about 24%. Average bonus points among first-choice applicants are trending to about 2.3 (+0.11 a year), a measure of point creep in a weighted draw. Confidence: medium.

Landowner preference (residents, 2026): 5 first-choice applicants, 5 drawn.

Nonresident odds by bonus point (2026 drawing)

Share of first-choice nonresident applicants at each bonus-point level who drew, from FWP's 2026 bonus point report. Each applicant gets one chance plus their points squared, so the draw favors high point holders without a hard cutoff. How Montana bonus points work.

Bonus points	Chances in drawing	1st-choice applicants	Drawn	Odds at this level
0	1	10	0	0.0%
1	2	11	0	0.0%
2	5	6	1	16.7%
3	10	4	2	50.0%
4	17	3	3	100.0%
5	26	3	2	66.7%
6	37	2	2	100.0%
8	65	1	1	100.0%

Nonresident outlook for 2027

If first-choice demand keeps its 2023 to 2026 trend (+1 applicants a year), about 41 nonresidents would apply in 2027; with the same number of first-choice licenses, overall first-choice odds would be about 27%. Average bonus points among first-choice applicants are trending to about 2.1 (+0.10 a year), a measure of point creep in a weighted draw. Confidence: low.

First-choice odds by year

First-choice draws over first-choice applicants in the regular drawing (landowner preference excluded).

Draw year	Quota	Res applicants	Res odds	NR applicants	NR odds
2023	175	631	25.0%	37	37.8%
2024	175	627	25.8%	39	23.1%
2025	175	669	24.4%	25	36.0%
2026	175	649	24.5%	40	27.5%

Outlook method: see the top of the Montana points explainer and our forecast method. It is a trend line, not a promise.

Notes from TagCanyon

In 2026, 649 residents listed this drawing first for a quota of 175, about 3.7 resident applicants per license.
Residents: at 0 bonus points 3% drew; at 8 points (the highest level with at least 5 applicants) 80% drew.
Nonresidents: at 0 bonus points 0% drew; at 2 points (the highest level with at least 5 applicants) 17% drew.

Deadline

Deer and elk permits: FWP's 2026 window ran Mar 1 to Apr 1, 2026 (11:45 p.m. Mountain), with results in mid-April. FWP has not posted 2027 dates yet; the April 1 deadline has held in recent years. FWP application and drawing dates.

Source: Montana Fish, Wildlife & Parks (FWP), 2026 Drawing Statistics reports (MyFWP drawing statistics, FWP application and drawing dates). Tables, outlooks and text are TagCanyon's own; FWP does not warrant or endorse them. Not affiliated with FWP. Retrieved Oct 17, 2026.