215-01 Elk B License Draw Odds, Montana

Elk b license, district 215-01, from FWP's 2023 to 2026 drawing statistics. Jump to resident odds or nonresident odds.

Fact	Value
Drawing	Elk b license, district 215-01
2026 total quota	250
2026 nonresident cap (FWP's NR quota column)	25
2026 landowner preference cap: resident / nonresident	38 / 25
2026 first-choice applicants: resident / nonresident	823 / 56
2026 drawn on first choice: resident / nonresident	238 / 11
2026 first-choice odds: resident / nonresident	28.9% / 19.6%
2026 total successful (all choices and pools)	250

Resident odds by bonus point (2026 drawing)

Share of first-choice resident applicants at each bonus-point level who drew, from FWP's 2026 bonus point report. Each applicant gets one chance plus their points squared, so the draw favors high point holders without a hard cutoff. How Montana bonus points work.

Bonus points	Chances in drawing	1st-choice applicants	Drawn	Odds at this level
0	1	196	18	9.2%
1	2	336	70	20.8%
2	5	182	70	38.5%
3	10	70	49	70.0%
4	17	25	17	68.0%
5	26	8	8	100.0%
6	37	3	3	100.0%
7	50	1	1	100.0%
8	65	2	2	100.0%

Resident outlook for 2027

If first-choice demand keeps its 2023 to 2026 trend (+78 applicants a year), about 901 residents would apply in 2027; with the same number of first-choice licenses, overall first-choice odds would be about 26%. Average bonus points among first-choice applicants are trending to about 1.5 (+0.15 a year), a measure of point creep in a weighted draw. Confidence: medium.

Landowner preference (residents, 2026): 1 first-choice applicants, 1 drawn.

Nonresident odds by bonus point (2026 drawing)

Share of first-choice nonresident applicants at each bonus-point level who drew, from FWP's 2026 bonus point report. Each applicant gets one chance plus their points squared, so the draw favors high point holders without a hard cutoff. How Montana bonus points work.

Bonus points	Chances in drawing	1st-choice applicants	Drawn	Odds at this level
0	1	15	1	6.7%
1	2	34	8	23.5%
2	5	5	1	20.0%
3	10	2	1	50.0%

Nonresident outlook for 2027

If first-choice demand keeps its 2023 to 2026 trend (+6 applicants a year), about 62 nonresidents would apply in 2027; with the same number of first-choice licenses, overall first-choice odds would be about 18%. Average bonus points among first-choice applicants are trending to about 0.9 (+0.04 a year), a measure of point creep in a weighted draw. Confidence: low.

First-choice odds by year

First-choice draws over first-choice applicants in the regular drawing (landowner preference excluded).

Draw year	Quota	Res applicants	Res odds	NR applicants	NR odds
2023	250	589	40.4%	39	25.6%
2024	250	650	37.2%	32	18.8%
2025	250	685	35.2%	30	23.3%
2026	250	823	28.9%	56	19.6%

Outlook method: see the top of the Montana points explainer and our forecast method. It is a trend line, not a promise.

Notes from TagCanyon

In 2026, 823 residents listed this drawing first for a quota of 250, about 3.3 resident applicants per license.
Residents: at 0 bonus points 9% drew; at 5 points (the highest level with at least 5 applicants) 100% drew.
Nonresidents: at 0 bonus points 7% drew; at 2 points (the highest level with at least 5 applicants) 20% drew.

Deadline

Elk B, deer B, antelope and antelope B licenses: FWP's 2026 window ran Mar 1 to Jun 1, 2026 (11:45 p.m. Mountain). FWP has not posted 2027 dates yet; the June 1 deadline has held in recent years. FWP application and drawing dates.

Source: Montana Fish, Wildlife & Parks (FWP), 2026 Drawing Statistics reports (MyFWP drawing statistics, FWP application and drawing dates). Tables, outlooks and text are TagCanyon's own; FWP does not warrant or endorse them. Not affiliated with FWP. Retrieved Oct 17, 2026.