121-01 Elk B License Draw Odds, Montana

Elk b license, district 121-01, from FWP's 2023 to 2026 drawing statistics. Jump to resident odds or nonresident odds.

Fact	Value
Drawing	Elk b license, district 121-01
2026 total quota	20
2026 nonresident cap (FWP's NR quota column)	2
2026 landowner preference cap: resident / nonresident	3 / 2
2026 first-choice applicants: resident / nonresident	190 / 7
2026 drawn on first choice: resident / nonresident	19 / 0
2026 first-choice odds: resident / nonresident	10.0% / 0.0%
2026 total successful (all choices and pools)	20

Resident odds by bonus point (2026 drawing)

Share of first-choice resident applicants at each bonus-point level who drew, from FWP's 2026 bonus point report. Each applicant gets one chance plus their points squared, so the draw favors high point holders without a hard cutoff. How Montana bonus points work.

Bonus points	Chances in drawing	1st-choice applicants	Drawn	Odds at this level
0	1	46	1	2.2%
1	2	49	1	2.0%
2	5	40	2	5.0%
3	10	28	4	14.3%
4	17	21	9	42.9%
5	26	5	1	20.0%
7	50	1	1	100.0%

Resident outlook for 2027

If first-choice demand keeps its 2023 to 2026 trend (+8 applicants a year), about 198 residents would apply in 2027; with the same number of first-choice licenses, overall first-choice odds would be about 10%. Average bonus points among first-choice applicants are trending to about 1.9 (+0.20 a year), a measure of point creep in a weighted draw. Confidence: medium.

Landowner preference (residents, 2026): 1 first-choice applicants, 1 drawn.

Nonresident odds by bonus point (2026 drawing)

Share of first-choice nonresident applicants at each bonus-point level who drew, from FWP's 2026 bonus point report. Each applicant gets one chance plus their points squared, so the draw favors high point holders without a hard cutoff. How Montana bonus points work.

Bonus points	Chances in drawing	1st-choice applicants	Drawn	Odds at this level
0	1	4	0	0.0%
1	2	3	0	0.0%

Nonresident outlook for 2027

If first-choice demand keeps its 2023 to 2026 trend (+1 applicants a year), about 8 nonresidents would apply in 2027; with the same number of first-choice licenses, overall first-choice odds would be about 0%. Average bonus points among first-choice applicants are trending to about 0.3 (-0.08 a year), a measure of point creep in a weighted draw. Confidence: low.

First-choice odds by year

First-choice draws over first-choice applicants in the regular drawing (landowner preference excluded).

Draw year	Quota	Res applicants	Res odds	NR applicants	NR odds
2023	20	166	12.0%	3	0.0%
2024	20	186	10.8%	4	0.0%
2025	20	176	11.4%	4	0.0%
2026	20	190	10.0%	7	0.0%

Outlook method: see the top of the Montana points explainer and our forecast method. It is a trend line, not a promise.

Notes from TagCanyon

In 2026, 190 residents listed this drawing first for a quota of 20, about 9.5 resident applicants per license.
Residents: at 0 bonus points 2% drew; at 5 points (the highest level with at least 5 applicants) 20% drew.

Deadline

Elk B, deer B, antelope and antelope B licenses: FWP's 2026 window ran Mar 1 to Jun 1, 2026 (11:45 p.m. Mountain). FWP has not posted 2027 dates yet; the June 1 deadline has held in recent years. FWP application and drawing dates.

Source: Montana Fish, Wildlife & Parks (FWP), 2026 Drawing Statistics reports (MyFWP drawing statistics, FWP application and drawing dates). Tables, outlooks and text are TagCanyon's own; FWP does not warrant or endorse them. Not affiliated with FWP. Retrieved Oct 17, 2026.