471-30 Antelope B License Draw Odds, Montana

Antelope b license, district 471-30, from FWP's 2023 to 2026 drawing statistics. Jump to resident odds or nonresident odds.

Fact	Value
Drawing	Antelope b license, district 471-30
2026 total quota	450
2026 nonresident cap (FWP's NR quota column)	45
2026 landowner preference cap: resident / nonresident	68 / 45
2026 first-choice applicants: resident / nonresident	819 / 26
2026 drawn on first choice: resident / nonresident	435 / 9
2026 first-choice odds: resident / nonresident	53.1% / 34.6%
2026 total successful (all choices and pools)	450

Resident odds by bonus point (2026 drawing)

Share of first-choice resident applicants at each bonus-point level who drew, from FWP's 2026 bonus point report. Each applicant gets one chance plus their points squared, so the draw favors high point holders without a hard cutoff. How Montana bonus points work.

Bonus points	Chances in drawing	1st-choice applicants	Drawn	Odds at this level
0	1	174	53	30.5%
1	2	423	194	45.9%
2	5	150	118	78.7%
3	10	56	54	96.4%
4	17	12	12	100.0%
5	26	2	2	100.0%
6	37	2	2	100.0%

Resident outlook for 2027

If first-choice demand keeps its 2023 to 2026 trend (-24 applicants a year), about 795 residents would apply in 2027; with the same number of first-choice licenses, overall first-choice odds would be about 55%. Average bonus points among first-choice applicants are trending to about 1.2 (+0.06 a year), a measure of point creep in a weighted draw. Confidence: medium.

Landowner preference (residents, 2026): 5 first-choice applicants, 5 drawn.

Nonresident odds by bonus point (2026 drawing)

Share of first-choice nonresident applicants at each bonus-point level who drew, from FWP's 2026 bonus point report. Each applicant gets one chance plus their points squared, so the draw favors high point holders without a hard cutoff. How Montana bonus points work.

Bonus points	Chances in drawing	1st-choice applicants	Drawn	Odds at this level
0	1	5	1	20.0%
1	2	18	6	33.3%
2	5	3	2	66.7%

Nonresident outlook for 2027

If first-choice demand keeps its 2023 to 2026 trend (-1 applicants a year), about 25 nonresidents would apply in 2027; with the same number of first-choice licenses, overall first-choice odds would be about 36%. Average bonus points among first-choice applicants are trending to about 1.0 (+0.03 a year), a measure of point creep in a weighted draw. Confidence: medium.

Landowner preference (nonresidents, 2026): 1 first-choice applicants, 1 drawn.

First-choice odds by year

First-choice draws over first-choice applicants in the regular drawing (landowner preference excluded).

Draw year	Quota	Res applicants	Res odds	NR applicants	NR odds
2023	300	892	32.0%	29	34.5%
2024	300	849	33.5%	29	37.9%
2025	450	733	57.7%	26	69.2%
2026	450	819	53.1%	26	34.6%

Outlook method: see the top of the Montana points explainer and our forecast method. It is a trend line, not a promise.

Notes from TagCanyon

In 2026, 819 residents listed this drawing first for a quota of 450, about 1.8 resident applicants per license.
Residents: at 0 bonus points 30% drew; at 4 points (the highest level with at least 5 applicants) 100% drew.
Nonresidents: at 0 bonus points 20% drew; at 1 points (the highest level with at least 5 applicants) 33% drew.

Deadline

Elk B, deer B, antelope and antelope B licenses: FWP's 2026 window ran Mar 1 to Jun 1, 2026 (11:45 p.m. Mountain). FWP has not posted 2027 dates yet; the June 1 deadline has held in recent years. FWP application and drawing dates.

Source: Montana Fish, Wildlife & Parks (FWP), 2026 Drawing Statistics reports (MyFWP drawing statistics, FWP application and drawing dates). Tables, outlooks and text are TagCanyon's own; FWP does not warrant or endorse them. Not affiliated with FWP. Retrieved Oct 17, 2026.