EM851O1R Elk Draw Odds, Colorado
Antlered (male) elk in GMU 851, 1st regular rifle season. Jump to resident odds or nonresident odds.
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| Fact | Value |
|---|---|
| Hunt | Antlered (male) elk, GMU 851, 1st regular rifle season |
| License list | A |
| 2026 quota | 5 |
| 2026 first-choice applicants (adult + youth, res + nonres) | 53 |
| 2026 licenses drawn: resident / nonresident (adult) | 4 / 1 |
| Share drawn by residents (incl. youth) | 80% |
| Nonresident cap / hybrid draw share | 20% / 20% |
| CPW drawn out at, 2026: resident | 17 pts (100% drawn at that level) |
| CPW drawn out at, 2026: nonresident | 29 pts (100% drawn at that level) |
Resident odds by preference point (2026 draw)
Share of first-choice resident applicants at each point level who drew this code in CPW's 2026 primary draw. Levels below the cut that still show draws come from CPW's hybrid or random share.
| Your points | 1st-choice applicants | Drawn | Odds at this level |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
| 19 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
| 17 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
| 16 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 15 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 14 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 13 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
| 12 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 11 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 10 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 9 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 8 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 7 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 6 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 4 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 3 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 2 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 1 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% |
Resident point-creep forecast for 2027
About 17 preference points is where the draw is likely to cut off next year, so applicants at 18 or more are likely to draw on first choice. Point creep has averaged +0.00 points a year (2023 to 2026). Confidence: low.
Nonresident odds by preference point (2026 draw)
Share of first-choice nonresident applicants at each point level who drew this code in CPW's 2026 primary draw. Levels below the cut that still show draws come from CPW's hybrid or random share.
| Your points | 1st-choice applicants | Drawn | Odds at this level |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
| 23 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 18 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 13 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 7 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 6 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 5 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 3 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 2 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
Nonresident point-creep forecast for 2027
About 35 preference points is where the draw is likely to cut off next year, so applicants at 36 or more are likely to draw on first choice. Point creep has averaged +6.50 points a year (2023 to 2026). Confidence: low.
Drawn-out history
The point level where CPW's preference draw ran out for adult applicants, each year.
| Draw year | Resident | Nonresident |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 17 pts (100% drawn at that level) | 16 pts (100% drawn at that level) |
| 2024 | 19 pts (100% drawn at that level) | none drawn |
| 2025 | 13 pts (100% drawn at that level) | 23 pts (50% drawn at that level) |
| 2026 | 17 pts (100% drawn at that level) | 29 pts (100% drawn at that level) |
Forecast method: how we forecast point creep. It is a trend line, not a promise.
Notes from TagCanyon
53 hunters put this code first for 5 licenses in 2026, about 10.6 first-choice applications per license. For residents, the points-to-draw index held steady from 2023 to 2026. For nonresidents, the points-to-draw index rose by about 13.0 points from 2023 to 2026. Nonresidents can receive at most 20% of the licenses in this code, so residents compete for the rest.
Deadline
CPW's 2026 primary draw ran Mar 1 to Apr 7, 2026 (8 p.m. Mountain). CPW has not posted the 2027 dates yet; recent years closed on the first Tuesday of April. A current qualifying license is required before you apply. CPW primary draw page.
Source: Colorado Parks and Wildlife (CPW), 2026 Primary Draw Recap for elk (report, CPW elk statistics). Tables, forecasts and text are TagCanyon's own; CPW does not warrant or endorse them. Not affiliated with CPW. Retrieved Oct 17, 2026.
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