430-20 Antelope License Draw Odds, Montana

Antelope license, district 430-20, from FWP's 2023 to 2026 drawing statistics. Jump to resident odds or nonresident odds.

Fact	Value
Drawing	Antelope license, district 430-20
2026 total quota	150
2026 nonresident cap (FWP's NR quota column)	15
2026 landowner preference cap: resident / nonresident	23 / 15
2026 first-choice applicants: resident / nonresident	483 / 66
2026 drawn on first choice: resident / nonresident	130 / 12
2026 first-choice odds: resident / nonresident	26.9% / 18.2%
2026 total successful (all choices and pools)	150

Resident odds by bonus point (2026 drawing)

Share of first-choice resident applicants at each bonus-point level who drew, from FWP's 2026 bonus point report. Each applicant gets one chance plus their points squared, so the draw favors high point holders without a hard cutoff. How Montana bonus points work.

Bonus points	Chances in drawing	1st-choice applicants	Drawn	Odds at this level
0	1	83	9	10.8%
1	2	175	27	15.4%
2	5	91	24	26.4%
3	10	84	42	50.0%
4	17	38	20	52.6%
5	26	9	5	55.6%
6	37	2	2	100.0%
7	50	1	1	100.0%

Resident outlook for 2027

If first-choice demand keeps its 2023 to 2026 trend (-13 applicants a year), about 470 residents would apply in 2027; with the same number of first-choice licenses, overall first-choice odds would be about 28%. Average bonus points among first-choice applicants are trending to about 1.8 (+0.06 a year), a measure of point creep in a weighted draw. Confidence: low.

Landowner preference (residents, 2026): 6 first-choice applicants, 6 drawn.

Nonresident odds by bonus point (2026 drawing)

Share of first-choice nonresident applicants at each bonus-point level who drew, from FWP's 2026 bonus point report. Each applicant gets one chance plus their points squared, so the draw favors high point holders without a hard cutoff. How Montana bonus points work.

Bonus points	Chances in drawing	1st-choice applicants	Drawn	Odds at this level
0	1	15	0	0.0%
1	2	27	3	11.1%
2	5	16	3	18.8%
3	10	4	3	75.0%
4	17	4	3	75.0%

Nonresident outlook for 2027

If first-choice demand keeps its 2023 to 2026 trend (+11 applicants a year), about 77 nonresidents would apply in 2027; with the same number of first-choice licenses, overall first-choice odds would be about 16%. Average bonus points among first-choice applicants are trending to about 1.1 (-0.17 a year), a measure of point creep in a weighted draw. Confidence: low.

Landowner preference (nonresidents, 2026): 2 first-choice applicants, 2 drawn.

First-choice odds by year

First-choice draws over first-choice applicants in the regular drawing (landowner preference excluded).

Draw year	Quota	Res applicants	Res odds	NR applicants	NR odds
2023	125	521	20.0%	34	26.5%
2024	175	679	22.4%	55	21.8%
2025	225	680	28.5%	79	17.7%
2026	150	483	26.9%	66	18.2%

Outlook method: see the top of the Montana points explainer and our forecast method. It is a trend line, not a promise.

Notes from TagCanyon

In 2026, 483 residents listed this drawing first for a quota of 150, about 3.2 resident applicants per license.
Residents: at 0 bonus points 11% drew; at 5 points (the highest level with at least 5 applicants) 56% drew.
Nonresidents: at 0 bonus points 0% drew; at 2 points (the highest level with at least 5 applicants) 19% drew.

Deadline

Elk B, deer B, antelope and antelope B licenses: FWP's 2026 window ran Mar 1 to Jun 1, 2026 (11:45 p.m. Mountain). FWP has not posted 2027 dates yet; the June 1 deadline has held in recent years. FWP application and drawing dates.

Source: Montana Fish, Wildlife & Parks (FWP), 2026 Drawing Statistics reports (MyFWP drawing statistics, FWP application and drawing dates). Tables, outlooks and text are TagCanyon's own; FWP does not warrant or endorse them. Not affiliated with FWP. Retrieved Oct 17, 2026.