404-20 Antelope License Draw Odds, Montana

Antelope license, district 404-20, from FWP's 2023 to 2026 drawing statistics. Jump to resident odds or nonresident odds.

Fact	Value
Drawing	Antelope license, district 404-20
2026 total quota	200
2026 nonresident cap (FWP's NR quota column)	20
2026 landowner preference cap: resident / nonresident	30 / 20
2026 first-choice applicants: resident / nonresident	2,249 / 241
2026 drawn on first choice: resident / nonresident	148 / 16
2026 first-choice odds: resident / nonresident	6.6% / 6.6%
2026 total successful (all choices and pools)	194

Resident odds by bonus point (2026 drawing)

Share of first-choice resident applicants at each bonus-point level who drew, from FWP's 2026 bonus point report. Each applicant gets one chance plus their points squared, so the draw favors high point holders without a hard cutoff. How Montana bonus points work.

Bonus points	Chances in drawing	1st-choice applicants	Drawn	Odds at this level
0	1	369	2	0.5%
1	2	497	17	3.4%
2	5	401	14	3.5%
3	10	293	20	6.8%
4	17	255	26	10.2%
5	26	182	26	14.3%
6	37	119	15	12.6%
7	50	57	15	26.3%
8	65	31	11	35.5%
9	82	8	4	50.0%
10	101	8	3	37.5%

Resident outlook for 2027

If first-choice demand keeps its 2023 to 2026 trend (+106 applicants a year), about 2,355 residents would apply in 2027; with the same number of first-choice licenses, overall first-choice odds would be about 6%. Average bonus points among first-choice applicants are trending to about 2.7 (+0.22 a year), a measure of point creep in a weighted draw. Confidence: medium.

Landowner preference (residents, 2026): 64 first-choice applicants, 30 drawn.

Nonresident odds by bonus point (2026 drawing)

Share of first-choice nonresident applicants at each bonus-point level who drew, from FWP's 2026 bonus point report. Each applicant gets one chance plus their points squared, so the draw favors high point holders without a hard cutoff. How Montana bonus points work.

Bonus points	Chances in drawing	1st-choice applicants	Drawn	Odds at this level
0	1	35	0	0.0%
1	2	63	4	6.3%
2	5	47	1	2.1%
3	10	27	2	7.4%
4	17	20	0	0.0%
5	26	15	1	6.7%
6	37	18	5	27.8%
7	50	11	2	18.2%
8	65	3	1	33.3%
9	82	1	1	100.0%
12	145	1	0	0.0%

Nonresident outlook for 2027

If first-choice demand keeps its 2023 to 2026 trend (+17 applicants a year), about 258 nonresidents would apply in 2027; with the same number of first-choice licenses, overall first-choice odds would be about 6%. Average bonus points among first-choice applicants are trending to about 2.7 (+0.12 a year), a measure of point creep in a weighted draw. Confidence: medium.

Landowner preference (nonresidents, 2026): 1 first-choice applicants, 0 drawn.

First-choice odds by year

First-choice draws over first-choice applicants in the regular drawing (landowner preference excluded).

Draw year	Quota	Res applicants	Res odds	NR applicants	NR odds
2023	200	1,931	7.8%	189	8.5%
2024	200	2,072	6.9%	216	8.8%
2025	200	2,101	7.0%	232	6.9%
2026	200	2,249	6.6%	241	6.6%

Outlook method: see the top of the Montana points explainer and our forecast method. It is a trend line, not a promise.

Notes from TagCanyon

In 2026, 2,249 residents listed this drawing first for a quota of 200, about 11.2 resident applicants per license.
Residents: at 0 bonus points 1% drew; at 10 points (the highest level with at least 5 applicants) 38% drew.
Nonresidents: at 0 bonus points 0% drew; at 7 points (the highest level with at least 5 applicants) 18% drew.

Deadline

Elk B, deer B, antelope and antelope B licenses: FWP's 2026 window ran Mar 1 to Jun 1, 2026 (11:45 p.m. Mountain). FWP has not posted 2027 dates yet; the June 1 deadline has held in recent years. FWP application and drawing dates.

Source: Montana Fish, Wildlife & Parks (FWP), 2026 Drawing Statistics reports (MyFWP drawing statistics, FWP application and drawing dates). Tables, outlooks and text are TagCanyon's own; FWP does not warrant or endorse them. Not affiliated with FWP. Retrieved Oct 17, 2026.