338-20 Antelope License Draw Odds, Montana

Antelope license, district 338-20, from FWP's 2023 to 2026 drawing statistics. Jump to resident odds or nonresident odds.

Fact	Value
Drawing	Antelope license, district 338-20
2026 total quota	100
2026 nonresident cap (FWP's NR quota column)	10
2026 landowner preference cap: resident / nonresident	15 / 10
2026 first-choice applicants: resident / nonresident	516 / 45
2026 drawn on first choice: resident / nonresident	85 / 5
2026 first-choice odds: resident / nonresident	16.5% / 11.1%
2026 total successful (all choices and pools)	100

Resident odds by bonus point (2026 drawing)

Share of first-choice resident applicants at each bonus-point level who drew, from FWP's 2026 bonus point report. Each applicant gets one chance plus their points squared, so the draw favors high point holders without a hard cutoff. How Montana bonus points work.

Bonus points	Chances in drawing	1st-choice applicants	Drawn	Odds at this level
0	1	134	4	3.0%
1	2	179	13	7.3%
2	5	114	28	24.6%
3	10	53	16	30.2%
4	17	27	17	63.0%
5	26	6	4	66.7%
6	37	2	2	100.0%
7	50	1	1	100.0%

Resident outlook for 2027

If first-choice demand keeps its 2023 to 2026 trend (+39 applicants a year), about 555 residents would apply in 2027; with the same number of first-choice licenses, overall first-choice odds would be about 15%. Average bonus points among first-choice applicants are trending to about 1.5 (+0.12 a year), a measure of point creep in a weighted draw. Confidence: low.

Landowner preference (residents, 2026): 10 first-choice applicants, 10 drawn.

Nonresident odds by bonus point (2026 drawing)

Share of first-choice nonresident applicants at each bonus-point level who drew, from FWP's 2026 bonus point report. Each applicant gets one chance plus their points squared, so the draw favors high point holders without a hard cutoff. How Montana bonus points work.

Bonus points	Chances in drawing	1st-choice applicants	Drawn	Odds at this level
0	1	4	0	0.0%
1	2	16	0	0.0%
2	5	15	1	6.7%
3	10	4	1	25.0%
4	17	6	3	50.0%

Nonresident outlook for 2027

If first-choice demand keeps its 2023 to 2026 trend (-2 applicants a year), about 43 nonresidents would apply in 2027; with the same number of first-choice licenses, overall first-choice odds would be about 12%. Average bonus points among first-choice applicants are trending to about 1.9 (+0.08 a year), a measure of point creep in a weighted draw. Confidence: medium.

First-choice odds by year

First-choice draws over first-choice applicants in the regular drawing (landowner preference excluded).

Draw year	Quota	Res applicants	Res odds	NR applicants	NR odds
2023	100	398	21.4%	52	19.2%
2024	100	409	21.0%	42	14.3%
2025	100	369	22.0%	49	20.4%
2026	100	516	16.5%	45	11.1%

Outlook method: see the top of the Montana points explainer and our forecast method. It is a trend line, not a promise.

Notes from TagCanyon

In 2026, 516 residents listed this drawing first for a quota of 100, about 5.2 resident applicants per license.
Residents: at 0 bonus points 3% drew; at 5 points (the highest level with at least 5 applicants) 67% drew.
Nonresidents: at 1 bonus points 0% drew; at 4 points (the highest level with at least 5 applicants) 50% drew.

Deadline

Elk B, deer B, antelope and antelope B licenses: FWP's 2026 window ran Mar 1 to Jun 1, 2026 (11:45 p.m. Mountain). FWP has not posted 2027 dates yet; the June 1 deadline has held in recent years. FWP application and drawing dates.

Source: Montana Fish, Wildlife & Parks (FWP), 2026 Drawing Statistics reports (MyFWP drawing statistics, FWP application and drawing dates). Tables, outlooks and text are TagCanyon's own; FWP does not warrant or endorse them. Not affiliated with FWP. Retrieved Oct 17, 2026.